Issue 132 December 2005

Why does the world fear the rise of China?
Mohammed Fayez Farahat
Worries about the rise of China are somehow exclusive to the US and a handful of allies - Japan in particular. For nations of Southeast Asia have reached a common ground with China, while Russia has managed to develop strategic cooperation with Beijing in a host of major domains. Concerns related to the growing power of China are based upon a group of objective factors: the narrowing military and nuclear gap between China and conventional military powers; ties between Beijing and the so-called rogue states and the Sino-American conflict over principles of international relations.

Barcelona Summit
Samia Beibers
The US hegemony over international relations and its pursuit to establish the so-called Greater Middle East led many observers to cast doubts aver the potentials of Barcelona Process. It seems doubtless that American officials envisage the Barcelona Process as a challenge to the US Middle East reform initiative. Moreover, European efforts to further coordinate with the US in pushing forward political reform in the region and the growing cross-Atlantic cooperation make it more likely for the Barcelona Process to remain stagnant.

The US National Strategy for Victory in Iraq
Kareem El-Qadi
The administration of US president George Bush announced last November a new document entitled The National Strategy for Victory in Iraq. The document, formulated by the National Security Council, offers a plan to achieve victory for the US in Iraq. In fact, it sought to address the US public opinion in light of the growing division over the occupation of Iraq as well as calls for the withdrawal of US troops raised lately by the Congress and some research and academic centres. Thus the document represents a reply to arguments proposed by those who cast doubt over the alleged US achievements in Iraq, particularly in relation to the war on terrorism and the establishment of a democratic system in the country.

What do Sudanese asylum-seekers want?
Dr Amani El-Taweel
Sudanese asylum-seekers in Egypt who have staged a sit-in near the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) sought a thorough treatment for the problems they encounter in the country. In fact, the UNHCR denies some of these the refugee status. Nevertheless, the asylum-seekers propose demands that are extremely difficult to be fulfilled, and they want to impose these demands on the UNHCR and the hosting country. They want the UNHCR to refrain from taking any action in response to recent developments in Southern Sudan or holding any talks with Sudanese civil society organisations for the purpose of safeguarding a voluntary return for the refugees.

The phenomenon of Muslim sisters in the Egyptian parliamentary elections
Hani Nessira
The enthusiasm expressed by the Muslim Brotherhood's female members in the legislative elections attracted the attention of many observers. For its part, the Brotherhood fielded a group of women including Dr Makarem El-Diri - professor in Al-Azhar University -who had a positive impact on the electorate. The Brotherhood's female activists managed to induce a large group of young men and women to vote for El-Diri. This had much to do with the tangible social services activities practiced by female Brotherhood members in the district of Nasr City.

Violence in Egyptian legislative elections
Mohammed Ezz El-Arab
The Egyptian parliamentary elections held in 2005 was characterised by quasi-organised violence in some constituencies, as clashes broke out between supporters of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and those of the Muslim Brotherhood on the one hand, and between the former and the backers of independent candidates on the other. Definitely, the third round of the elections witnessed mounting violence due to the presence of a wide group of thugs equipped with small swords. At the same time, practices of the Muslim Brotherhood were frightening as the group's loyalists had a militia-like appearance due to their organised and disciplined manner.

Issue 131 November 2005
The relationship between the President and the Supreme Guide in Iran
Mohammed Abbas Nagui
When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad achieved a landslide victory in the ninth Iranian presidential elections held in June 2005, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide thought that he would have the upper hand in governing the country because Ahmadinejad was one of his adherents. In fact, Khamanie expected Ahmadinejad to perform as a secretary who puts his instructions into practice without evening questioning them. Surprisingly enough, the harmony between the two men quickly vanished and Khamenei realised that in no way he could count on Ahmadinejad.

Militants arriving from Iraq: the future threat in the Middle East
Dr Mohammed Abdul Salam
Some could argue that it is too early to talk about militants arriving from Iraq because the infiltration into the country is still in force despite the persistent efforts exerted by neighbouring countries to put an end to this movement. Yet there is evidence that the problem has already started to express itself and it is expected for at least six countries bordering Iraq to find themselves in a difficult situation due to the flow of militants. One go further to predict that these militants will pose the major future threat in Middle East.


Independent candidates in Egyptian parliamentary elections
Dr Amr Hashem Rabie
The NDP dissidents (members who desert the National Democratic Party and run as independents when the party refuses to field them) have been a remarkable feature characterising Egyptian parliamentary elections over the past decades. This question was subject to wide debates because the NDP usually accepts to readmit them to its ranks when they emerge victorious. Yet 2005-elections was thought to be different because the Policies Secretariat' handled the process of choosing candidates via the electoral college system, and the party's leaders asserted that members who decline to abide by the party's regulations would be dismissed once and for all. But because the so-called old guard managed to have the upper hand in choosing candidates, members with limited popularity- if any- were fielded. Therefore, many of them ended up losing their seats; a situation that obliged the party to retread from its previous decision.

Sheikh Khaled El-Guindy: could Al-Azhar University produce reformists?
Wael Lotfy
The discourse adopted by sheikh Khaled El-Guindy cannot be viewed as a sign of the start of a reform process in Al-Azhar. This is because El-Guindy urges individuals to stick to religious principles although what is at stake is reforming the existing institutions. As for Al-Azhar, it is in dire need for introducing radical reforms covering the way the Grand Imam is chosen, the sources of finance, and the relationship with the ruling regime. This process cannot be put into practice through a group of sincere scholars who do not realise the necessity of question of religious reform.

What happened in France?
Dr Khaled Abdul Azeem
The recent riots in the poorest slums of France caught the attention of the whole world. It was clear that the harsh attitude followed by the police vis-à-vis people of African and North African origins was not accidental. It actually reflected the oppression usually practiced by the security while handling migrants' problems. What made things worse was the claims by the French Interior Minister that society should be cleared of dwellers of the poor slums as though they were mean and dirty.

Germany's policies in the Middle East
Samia Baibers
Germany's strong opposition to the war on Iraq was a clear indication of the active role it sought to play in the region. Berlin's firm stance against the war was declared from the very beginning, when the US administration revealed its intension to attack Iraq. Germany viewed the war as illegitimate because Washington did not have a mandate by the UN Security Council. Yet despite the decision not to take part in the war, Germany expressed readiness to contribute in the process of reconstruction.

Issue 130- October 2005

New fundamentalists: where did the perpetrators of the Taba bombings come from?
Mohammed Salah
New generations of fundamentalists were inspired by fatwas issued by Ossama Bin Laden and Ayman el-Zawahri. Thus without being directly recruited by al-Qaeda, they attempted to put those fatwas into practice for the sake of going to heaven. They found in tourists an attainable target, as it was so difficult to reach US soldiers or even Egyptian officials. The geographical nature of Sinai and the abundance of weapons there were of great help to the plans of the perpetrators.

Why are Scandinavian countries concerned with the Middle East?
Ahmed Diab
For a long period of time, the Middle East has been a matter of concern for Scandinavian countries. They sponsored peace negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis, and contributed in UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon (Norway has 1000 troops) and Darfour (the three Scandinavian countries have 180 soldiers). Moreover, Norway hosted the conference of donor countries to help Sudan in March 2005, and Denmark and Norway contributed with 525 soldiers and 20 officers in Iraq respectively. Least but not last, Sweden and Denmark have founded institutes for dialogue and cooperation in some Arab capitals.

Could Maali Adomim undermine possibilities of a peaceful settlement?
Said Okasha
Maali Adomim is crucial to Israel as it is the largest settlement surrounding Jerusalem. Therefore, Israel seeks to enlarge Maali Adomim besides other three settlements. Meanwhile, the active role by Gosh Amonium movement and Mefdal Party in urging Israelis to move to Maali Adomim makes it more difficult to put an end to Israeli plans to establish new settlements and annex them to the Israeli territories in the future. This would imply creating new facts on the ground to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state on the land of 4 June 1967.

Identity debate in the West
Hani Nessira
After the end of the Cold War, the need by western countries for a new strategic challenge came to the fore. Bernard Louis and Huntington proposed challenges related to civilisational clashes while Paul Crogman and Robert Laurence stressed the economic challenges in light of the rise of China and Japan as major economic powers. Yet what has become apparent lately is the focus on identity question by both the right and the left in the West.

Geographical features of the border between Egypt and Gaza Strip
Nour Mohammed Mokhtar
The flow of a huge number of Palestinians through the Egyptian borders following the withdrawal of Israeli troop from Gaza predicts that the region will experience intensive and unconventional interactions in the near future, until arrangements are reached to create a state of stability in the region.

Rahman charity tables in Egypt
Mohammed Ezz Al-Arab
Rather then signifying religiousness, the spread of rahman charity tables has political, economic and cultural magnitudes. Although offering rahman charity tables has to be praised as a benevolent social attitude, if the phenomenon is deeply investigated, it will be found that it has much to do with social prestige and political interests.

Issue 129- September 2005
New leadership in countries neighbouring the Arab World
Mohammed Abdul Qader
The rise of Turkey and Iran led to different consequences due to divergences concerning the democratic experience of each, the nature of foreign challenges, and the cultural and political backgrounds of the two countries' leaders. Thus attitudes of Ahmadinejad and Ardogan have much dissimilarity.

The public diplomacy and the US image
Ahmen Al-Saman
The US State Department has adopted a broadened approach of public diplomacy. The department is currently considering the establishment of a new apparatus for the purpose of amelioration the US image in light of the offensive manner adopted by the media in many parts of the world. Up to the moment, the US government lacks an institution capable of dealing with the antagonism expressed by the world media and diplomacy.

How does China deal with Africa?
Amr Rashid
According to the Chinese view, cooperation with Africa is far behind the targeted levels. Actually, there are obstacles standing on the way of boosting cooperation between the two parties. Yet Beijing envisages the African continent as a potential large market for Chinese products, a situation explaining the persistent efforts exerted lately by China to push forward the socio-economic relations with the continent via the African Chinese Forum as well as one-to-one cooperation.

The impact of new Egyptian opposition movements
Ahmed Meneisi
Unlike conventional political forces, which have been satisfied with gradual reform, new opposition movements advocate radical political reform the formation of a new democratic system. Moreover, these movements threw a stone in the stagnant waters of political change in some Arab countries where opposition movements with similar calls and slogans started to appear.

Genetic origins of Egyptian animals and plants
Mohammed Rada Habib
Over the two past decades, developed nations invented a system to remove barriers separating peoples and fortunes; thus there was the GATT agreement. The TPIRS agreement was part of this new orientation. In this context, it is acknowledged that genetic orientations in each country represent part of the national wealth that have to be protected. Otherwise, development process would not be able to move forward.

The NGOs and African areas of conflict
Khaled Hanafi Ali
There are a variety of organisations dealing with African conflicts. Some of these, including the International Committee of the Red Cross and Medicins Sans Frontiers, focus on human aid, while others such as the International Crises Group concentrate their efforts on preventing the outbreak of conflicts. Staging confidence-building measures and holding dialogues among conflicting parties are the main concern of Search of common Ground and other organisations. As for religious organisations, such as Council of African Churches and World Council of Churches, they perform humanitarian, economic and security roles.

Issue 128 - August 2005

Tensions in regional Algerian policies
Khaled El-Sergani
Controversial Algerian attitudes vis-à-vis many regional issues have much to do with the country's conventional outlooks that could be traced to the Cold War era. In fact, Algeria needs to introduce basic changes in its foreign policy, which would imply transformations in regional and international alliances. In this context, domestic adjustments covering the balance of power among political forces are crucial, although they need much time to be achieved.

Saudi Arabia after Fahd
Hani Raslan
The new Saudi monarch has to deal with two major issues: domestic reform and the circulation of power within the Royal Family. As for the relationship with the US, it has been settled throughout the past years in accordance with a certain pattern. Regional questions of Iraq and Palestine come second after the domestic issues. In fact, Saudi's political scene seems to be ready to undergo a far-reaching change covering institutions and politics, a change that if materialised, would signify the start of a new phase in the country's history.

Who govern Iran?
Mohammed Abbas Nagui
The process of decision-making in foreign policy is so complicated in Iran since a variety of institutions with divergent perspectives have a say in this respect. Thus the Iranian president does not have a hegemonic role in directing foreign policy. According to the constitution, the Supreme Guide is the first man in the political system and the president comes next. Yet the aptitude of the president to control the country's foreign policy is closely associated with the strength of his personality in the face of other institutions as well as his ability to practice the constitutional mandates he has. Former president Mohammed Khatami was dexterous in this respect.

The departure of John Garang and the future of Sudan
Dr Amani El-Taweel
The departure of John Garang represented a great loss to the Sudanese government, a fact that rules out any possibilities of the Sudanese regime's involvement in his death. The regime has actually lost a partner that had helped to bridge the gap with the US administration - which accuses the Sudanese government of supporting terrorism. Moreover, the peaceful agreement reached in January 2005 between the government and Garang's Sudan people's Liberation Movement drew donor countries' attention to the need to boost economic development in both Northern and Southern Sudan.

Is it possible to apply the model of Brasilia in Egypt?
Hesham El-Sadeq
Brazil managed to found a new capital in a few years. Such experience could work as guidance to Egypt for we need a new capital to substitute Cairo, which suffers from insoluble problems including pollution, heavy traffic and the like. To push forward decentralisation, Brazil managed to divided government institutions and authorities over three mega cities: Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia, and Sao Paolo.

Political orientations of Egyptian Sufi orders
Hamdi Mustafa
Following president Mubarak's decision to amend constitutional article 76 to allow for a multi-candidate presidential election for the first time in Egypt's history, the First Sufi conference held in April 2005, called for adopting the principle of Shura (consultation) in different political and economic domains. The support given to Mubarak by the 11 million adherents to Sufi orders came in this context.

Issue 127-July 2005
Arabs living in Britain after the London bombings
Abdullah Abdul Salam
There is much evidence that the co-existence between Arab and Muslim communities living in Britain and the British society was endangered in the aftermath of the London bombings which occurred on 7 July 2005. Hence, there is a need for a new beginning to repair the damage caused by the bombings.

Hamas' war in Gaza strip
Tareq Hassan
Hamas is currently using all means at its disposal -including armed struggle, contesting elections and taking actions to undermine the power of the Palestinian Authority-to control the situation in the Palestinian territories. The movement has mobilised efforts in this direction with the approaching Israeli withdrawal from Gaza Strip and a number of settlements in the West Bank. The PA for its part realises how dangerous the situation has become, particularly after the latest clashes with Hamas militants.

Why does Israel insist to sell weapons to China?
Mohammed Gamal Mazloum
China and South East Asian countries provide Israel with a good opportunity to market its weapon production, especially when taking into account the weak African market and the blocked Arab and Latin American markets. Thus the Asian market - mainly China and India-is the sole outlet for Israeli arms exports. In this context, Israel pins much hope on China for the latter's increasing role in world politics.

Problems facing the reformation of Iraqi security forces
Dr Mohammed Abdul Salam
Assaults carried out by militants against Iraqi security forces are the most important challenge confronting these forces. Militants attack Iraqi troops whenever possible. They strike recruitment centres, hit police patrols and launch assaults against the Iraqi forces in the battlefield. Losses at Iraqi security forces are far higher than those at US troops. After the formation of the government headed by Ibrahim Al-Gaafari, the situation got worse with the increase of violent actions.

A decade of Mediterranean Partnership
Ossama Farouk Mekhemer
After the passage of ten years since Barcelona Conference was held, it seems of much relevance to review the Mediterranean cooperation in light of the changes occurring in the European domain, mainly the EU enlargement through the joining of new 15 members in May 2004. This situation urged the EU to focus on safeguarding the regions bordering the Mediterranean through boosting welfare and stability there. Barcelona Principles are pivotal in this context.

Demographic problems in the Gulf
Mohammed Ezz Al-Arab
Foreign employment is one of the major dilemma facing Gulf countries. Surpluses generated by oil revenues over the past decades created a flow of foreign workers to these countries. Thus the demographic composition there was disturbed and many problems appeared on the surface, although the magnitude of these problems differs from country to another. In general, citizens became a minority in many Gulf countries, so that foreign workers are now envisaged by some observers as forming a lobby with an interest in preserving the present defect.

Issue 126-June 2005

Four problems face the Israeli army
Said Okasha
Over the past three decades, the Israeli army has faced great pressure that created a long-lasting crisis. The atmosphere of uncertainty led to a state of shakiness and division within the ranks of the Israeli military vis-à-vis a variety of issues. It is thought that such crisis would threaten the high status enjoyed by the army in Israel, despite the fact that the army still represents a shield for Israeli society in the face of party conflicts that is likely to grow in light of the disappearance of the country's conventional leaders.

Political orientations of the Association of Muslim scholars in Iraq
Ahmed Ayoub
The offensive stance adopted by the Association of Muslim Scholars a propos of Shiites is no different from its position vis-à-vis Sunnis who accept to take part in the political process in Iraq. In the eyes of the association, both groups have sold out the Iraqi people to the occupation. Yet if the situation is accurately investigated, there will be traced various divergences among Muslim Scholars in connection with the participation of the new government and the contribution in formulating the constitution.

What has changed in Lebanon from 1975-2005?
Walid Mahmoud Abdul Nasser
Unlike the situation in 1975, when fear and distrust among Lebanese political and sectarian forces was prevalent, there is now a consensus among these forces on Taif Agreement signed in 1989. Moreover, political forces realise that things have become more complicated as the political scene in no more dominated by a handful of traditional leaderships that could control the situation if rival factions descend to armed clashes. In the meantime, everybody knows that the eruption of armed confrontations would definitely turn out of control. Furthermore, threats are visible as some forces might give preference to regional and international alliances over their ties with other forces at home.

What will El-Baradie Do in his third mandate?
Dr Mohammed Abdul Salam
Mohammed El-Baradi, the general-manager of The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to encounter a host of difficulties throughout his third term in office. The IAEA has become a key player in international relations in light of the row over nuclear programmes of Iran and North Korea as well as the growing threat of nuclear terrorism. El-Baradie has to find a way to deal with these thorny issues while taking into account that he is now more free-handed since this is his last term in office. In any case, the balance of power on the ground is expected to determine what could be done and what could not.

What is underway between the Muslim brotherhood and the West?
Mohammed Salah
The US willingness to open channels of communication with the Muslim Brotherhood is not solely due to the fact that the Brotherhood is an influential political force on the Egyptian political scene. But such inclination reflects the neo-conservatives' conviction of the need to neutralise moderate Islamic groups in the ongoing war on terrorism. As for European countries, they have their own calculations, as they are interested in safeguarding the European security through achieving stability in countries bordering the Mediterranean, confronting organised crime and Islamic fundamentalism, and creating a state of peaceful co-existence between Muslim communities in European countries and their societies.

Great Intellectuals in Egypt
Hani Nessira
Despite the variety of ideological outlooks in the Arab World and the widespread of the term great intellectual, studying the condition of Egyptian intellectuals have not drawn researchers' attention. Except for occasions of honouring and granting awards, when great intellectuals are applauded, a very few researchers were interested in investigating objective and conceptual conditions related to great intellectuals. Furthermore, the domination of certain preconceptions such as the sacredness of the heritage and the antagonism with Israel dominate the perspectives of investigating the conditions of great intellectuals in Egypt.

Issue 125_ May 2005

What is the expected role of Rafsanjani in the Iranian political system? Mohammed Abbas Nagui
The forthcoming presidential elections in Iran, scheduled to be held on 17 June 2005, could be the most significant presidential elections in the country's history due to many reasons. The state of uncertainty dominating the Iranian political scene has gained momentum in the light of Rafsanjani's ambiguous stance vis-à-vis the nomination for the presidency. For the decision he will take will affect other candidates' electoral campaigns, and it will put an end to the current state of confusion experienced by different political forces, especially the conservative ones, as well as some reformist groups that are waiting to hear Rafsanjani's word before deciding whom to nominate for the post.


How does Libya handle the question of political reform? Khaled Hanafi Ali
Libya's awareness of the domestic and foreign pressures necessitating reform has allowed for the appearance of new indicators that nobody has ever expected to see on the Libyan political scene. It is worthy of attention here that reform took at the beginning an economic character, then developed to acquire a political one. Nevertheless, the stress by president Gaddafi on the crucial role of the Revolutionary Committees in the procession of the Libyan political regime shows that the reform process in Libya will remain subject to contradictory tendencies of advancement and retreat, if the liberal current fails to establish alternative democratic institutions capable of gaining massive support.

How does the Saudi religious institution envisage its future role? Motaz Salama
It is likely that reform process in Saudi Arabia will have a great influence on the religious institution for a variety of factors. On the one hand, the ballots will result in the emergence of new forces of civil society, whose views and inclinations might be incompatible with those of the religious institution and its powerful clerics. Moreover, the liberal current might acquire a gradual influence to the detriment of that of the religious institution. Reform implies that the religious institution has to accept that it is one among peers, each of which should strive to gain people's support. This implies that the institution will have to give a rational character to its discourse, rather than searching for power in the relationship with the ruling regime. Thus reform will liberate the religious institution from the domination of the stagnant ideas and open the door to innovation in religious thought. In this context, the religious institution will move closer to society and the Wahabi doctrine will experience a transformation from inside.

Practical indications of Putin's visit to the Middle East. Dr NorhanEl-Sheikh.
It comes in Russia's interest in the current phase to boost economic and military cooperation with the Arab World. The visit by Russian president Vladimir Putin to the Middle East remains a turning point regarding the Russian foreign policy in the region. The visit managed to ameliorate the image of Russia in the Arab and Islamic worlds, as well as in Israel and the entire world. It is no more possible for Israel to accuse the Russian leadership of being anti-Semitic and take such an accusation as a pretext to curb Russo-Arab cooperation in the military domain.

The position of the Middle East in the Review Conference of 2005. Dr Adel Mohammed Ahmed.
The hard diplomatic efforts exerted by the Arabs on regional and international levels has given a momentum to the call for clearing the Middle East of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction in general. The Arabs should capitalise on the progress they made through well-planned coordination in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference set to take place in May 2005. Actually, the Arab world has experienced relevant changes regarding this question, including the elimination of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (as the US announced that Iraq was empty of these weapons), Libya's decision to put an end to its programme on weapons of mass destruction in December 2003, and the decision by the International Agency for Atomic Energy to check the Iranian nuclear programme.

The state of drug consumption in Egypt. General Essam el-Terssawi
Indicators prove that bango still tops the list of narcotics consumed in Egypt. This fact had been affirmed by the administration for combating narcotics in its report released in 1995, which referred to a growth in the demand for bango due to its low prices and the disappearance of cheap alternative drugs.

Issue 124_ April 2005
IBSA, The alliance of the three states: South African Republic, India and Brazil. Essam Saadeddin
IBSA forum proposes the same ideas put forward by Nasser, Nehro and Tito, the prominent leaders of the fifties, who had founded the Non-Alignment Movement. The innovative aspect regarding the forum is that it expresses a move from what is called the idealist phase to the practical phase. The forum seeks to set applicable plans of cooperation among member states. Thus, it is expected that the forum will emerge as a major economic power in a time span of ten years, a situation that will allow its members to enjoy the status of great regional powers.

The concept of soft power in US policy. Karim al-Qadi
It is doubtless that the return by the US to use the concept of soft power signifies a relative transformation regarding its policy in the Middle East. This will open the door for new fields of cooperation between the US and some Arab countries, a situation expected to benefit the latter and ameliorate the relationship between the two parties.

The future of conventional weapons in the light of the revolution of military technology. General Adel Soliman
In the early 1980s, the US realised that conventional weapons were unable to achieve landslide victories in wars, and that the efficiency of these arms had much to do with the skills of their users. Thus the US moved towards a project called Star Wars, which developed to the National Missile Defence system, then to the revolution in military affairs (RMA). According to the RMA, military capabilities are not measured anymore through the size of military forces or the stock of conventional weapons including aircrafts, artilleries or tanks, but through its proximity to the innovations of the revolution in military affairs.

It what way Palestinian president thinks? Dr Mohammed Hamza
After Khaled el-Hassan (a prominent Palestinian leadership) passed away, Mahmoud Abbas, Abu Mazen, emerged as the leader of the Palestinian realistic school, which represents the frame of reference to many Palestinian leaderships. Although the school has been the target of ruthless criticism, no one can deny the pivotal role it played in directing the Palestinian national movement.

The hidden aspects of NATO exercises in Algerian regional water? Dr Khaled Abdul Azeem
The NATO is currently involved in military exercises in Gibraltar, whose seawater is rich of natural gas that goes to the West. Actually, natural gas has become a major source of electric power and contributes with 30 per cent of total world energy. In the light of these facts, Algeria seeks to host those exercises to enhance its logistic and marine capabilities. This situation shows the existence of mutual interests concerning safeguarding the shipping of natural gas in Gibraltar.

How are Egyptian economic indicators investigated? Omar Rahsed
Some people mix GDP at fixed prices with that at variable prices. In many cases the two values are examined as if they are equals. Moreover, some of us do not recognise the difference between GDP valued according to costs of factors of production and that valued according market prices. Actually, many economic indicators such as the price index need to be reviewed and developed to cope with the ongoing changes in the economic domain.

Issue 123_ March 2005
What does the Islamic current do in Kuwait? Dr Salah Salem Zarnouqa.
Democracy in Kuwait is characterised by an apparent imbalance regarding the relationship between the government and the Nation's Council (the parliament). Unlike the situation in many developing countries, the imbalance in Kuwait comes in favour of the parliament. In so far as the Islamic current is hegemonic in the Kuwaiti parliament, the current's impact on politics out-weights its actual influence in society. Moreover, rules of political practice in Kuwait provided the individual with a power that could hardly be felt somewhere else. Accordingly, the Kuwaiti Islamic current has managed to make a big row by depending on a very limited number of members.

How do economic relations between Egypt and Iraq run? Ahmed el-Sayed el-Naggr.h
Commercial exchange between Cairo and Baghdad will remain close to the current levels if the turbulent situation in Iraq continues. However, if the state of disorder is to have an end, commercial exchange between the two countries can experience a leap forward. Under any circumstances, the development of economic relations between the two countries will depend upon political relations. Egypt, for its part, treats the existing Iraqi regime as a fait accompli, and seeks to have an active role in realising stability and helping Sunnis to be involved in the political process. Such a position, therefore, keeps the economic relations between the two countries at fair levels, so they neither make jumps nor suffer from setbacks.

Jordanian worries regarding the developments in Iraq. Dr Mohammed Safyeddin Kharboush
Jordan fears that Iraq - which has been a strategic ally, politically and economically, over the past quarter century - could become a threat to the existing local and regional equilibrium. There is no doubt that Jordan considers that an Iraqi regime dominated by Shiites and allied with Iran (and most probably with Lebanon and Syria) will place Amman in a weak position so that it might appear as the most vulnerable nation in the Fertile Crescent comprising Iraq and the Levant. This state of affairs could destabilise the existing balance and lead to the appearance of a new one at the expense of Jordan, which has managed to survive and play an active role in the region since the foundation of the principality and its later transformation to a kingdom.

New players in the US National Security Council. Hanan El-Badri
It is no difficult to foresee the probable orientations by the US National Security Council in US president George Bush's seconds term in office. Although Stephen Hadley belongs to the bureaucracy in the same way as Condoleezza Rice.is, there are observable differences between the two officials, as Hadley does not have a deep experience concerning formulating policies. In so far as Hadley is expected to content with the role of the coordinator, it is likely that the traditional conflict between the US Department of State, the National Security Council and the Pentagon, will vanish.

Internet censorship in the Arab World. Hamdi Mustafa
The introduction of the Internet into public life in the early 1990s aroused a controversial debate on the validity of Internet censorship. Three tendencies appeared in this regard. Some countries, including Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan refrained from making any kind of control; others banned the network altogether. A third group followed a way in between when they used technological procedures to ban certain websites that they find inappropriate for this or that reason. Sometimes Punitive measures are taken against people who break the rules set by their governments.

The hard problem of motorcycles' exhausts in Cairo. Hesham el_Sadeq.
Various tests have proven that standards of air pollution in Egyptian cities, especially Cairo, surpass the limits set by World Health Organisation. Such high standard of air pollution causes annually 3400 cases of premature death, 15, 000 of chronic infections and 8 million of asthma. Financial losses caused by air pollution amount to $ 3 billion a year. Thus sources of the problem, including motorcycles' exhausts, should draw the attention of those concerned with finding a solution.

Issue 122_ February 2005
Great myths of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Said Okasha
Israeli extremists have employed the myth that Arabs seek to throw Israel in the sea to evade peace. In the same way, extremists on the other side innovate their own myths to keep the conflict within the same limits. In this context, there was a myth of the slogan written on the wall of Israeli Knesset that the aspired boundaries of the Israeli state extend from the Nile to the Euphrates.

The truth about the Iranian Shiite expansion to Iraq. Mohammed Abbas Nagui
Iraqi Shiites do not have a unified position a propos Iran. Secular Shiites, especially the officials of the interim government, stand against the Iranian influence on Iraqi Shiites, to the extent that they consider Iran as the main enemy for its alleged support to the Iraqi resistance. On the contrary, followers of the grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani stood for forging strong ties with Iran.

How Arab countries handle catastrophes? Major general Mohammed Ibrahim
When Arab governments face catastrophes, there appear huge problems impeding their efforts to limit the losses and perform rescue missions. These problems include the lack of coordination among public relief agencies, the rise of competition that obstruct their work, and the absence of adequate capabilities, so that civil society organisations might move faster to provide help.

QUIZ : Jordan's losses and profits. Safaa Gamaleddin

Industrial Zones in Jordan have led to a rise in job opportunities. In 2003, there were 26,500 opportunities compared with 16,240 in 2001 - an increase of 63 per cent. The share of local labour force was 58 per cent, while 42 per cent of these jobs went to foreign labourers. In addition, some activities that are indirectly related to the industrial zones experienced a boom, such as restaurants and other fields that offer services to these areas. The number of tourists in Jordan has gone up as well.

How did India make a miracle in information technology? Diaa Hosny
The Indian educational system plays a pivotal role to sustain the country's IT progress. There enter the labour market every year a great number of qualified graduates with fluent English. They provide the IT sector with a flow of experts (around 290,000 engineers and 250,000 technicians with diplomas recognised in the international market) with wage rates lower by five times than their equivalents in western countries. Moreover, the improvement in the infrastructure and the falling prices of telecommunications help boost the IT in India.

How does Kremlin leadership perceive the Russo-Arab relations? Dr Norhan El-Sheikh
In so far as the Russian leaders realise that the US is the key player in the Middle East and in the peace process as well, they have no intention to seek competition with their US counterparts. The Arabs, for their part, have to find a way to develop a relationship with Russia based upon cooperation to fulfil the interests of the two parties. It is impossible now to treat Russia as a power identical to the former USSR. On the other hand, Russia should not be considered as the last option that could be used as a tactic to place pressures on other powers, for such attitude will not help realise the interests of Arab countries.

Issue 121_ January 2005
FONT COLOR='#0000FF'>Prevalent views on Egypt's nuclear policy. Dr Mohammed Abdul Salam
Egypt's stance vis-à-vis nuclear armament is not unique. It corresponds to a common pattern among a variety of powerful nations, which decided not to produce nuclear weapons despite their possession of the required capabilities. They include Japan, Brazil, Germany, Argentina and South Korea. As for an Arab country like Algeria, although it established a nuclear plant at Ain Wazer, it did not reconsider its position regarding nuclear armament.

Will Yemen join the Gulf Cooperation Council? Dr Hassan Abu Taleb
The Yemeni persistence to join the Gulf Cooperation Council indicates that there are still hopes for a progress to take place in this regard. However, it remains difficult to accurately assess the magnitude of this progress. Although reports were released in the eve of the Manama summit that a recommenda