2006

Issue 144_December 2006

Mohammed Fayez Farahat__Strategic Repercussions of the Korean Nuclear Experiment

The nuclear experiment Southern Korea conducted in October 2006 raised many fears and worries concerning its strategic repercussions. Reasons behind these fears are many; they might come from micro states that are hostile to the United States, or they might come from the heart of one of the peripherals of Asia- pacific region which constitutes the main domain for APEC forum which is considered one of the main cross regional economic entities responsible for preserving global economic growth. In this context, this experiment is expected to have serious repercussions on different political, security, military, and economic interactions in the region. FULL ARTICAL

Reda Mohammed Helal__Israeli relations with Russian Commonwealth countries

Through its intensive actions in Russian Commonwealth countries, Israel is seeking to complete the strategic circle it is surrounding Arab countries with through allying with Turkey in the north, Eritrea in the south and Russian Commonwealth countries in the north and north east. Thus Arab countries are now in a bad need to take actions that reflect awareness of Israeli actions aiming at changing geo-strategic facts of the Middle East and making new arrangements that help Israel play the role of greater and stronger partner in the region.

Sobhy Essaila__Will Israel strike Sallah Eddin Axis in Gaza?

The latest Israeli war in Lebanon led Tel Aviv to rethink about the situation in Gaza in general and about mechanisms to control Sallah Eddin (Philadelphia) Axis extending for 14 Kilometers on the borders with Egypt. Israel fears that smuggling weapons to Gaza stripe might make it another Lebanon in the heart of Israel, thus the question now is: is Israel planning for a massive military operation to invade Gaza stripe with the aim of controlling Sallah Eddin Axis?

Mohhmad Abbas Nagi__Qatar and the Dream of Playing a Regional Role

Qatar represents a micro state ambitious to play a special regional role in a very complex regional atmosphere, and to achieve that Qatar might adopt pragmatic situations that go beyond the mainstream understandings of the major regional powers and do not some times stick to the on ground facts, but rather tries to jump over the crisis and contradictions of the middle east. The latest examples of Qatari pragmatic policies in this regard came with its initiative to settle the Palestinian crisis between Hamas and Fateh movements, and then with Qatar's refusal to support the Jordanian candidate for UN secretary general post.

Badr Hassan Shafi'e__Regional Dimensions of the Somali Crisis

The third round of negotiations of the Somali crisis which was planned to be conducted in October 2006 failed, this was the result of Islamic courts' objection on the existence of Ethiopian troops on Somali territories to support the transitional government which feels isolated in the town of Baidawa. The courts also refused Kenya's participation in the negotiations, saying it is not a neutral mediator. All this reflects the fact that many regional parties play roles and intervene in the Somali crisis and each of these parties is trying to affect the ongoing conflict in a way that serves their own interests.

Adel Abdul Sadek__The Reality about Internet Role in Disseminating Religious Hatred in the World

The internet became one of the important actors in the process of producing, managing and distributing couture in the world, it helps people to know other humanitarian dimensions that differ from their own, and this might take the form of a clash between local values and the challenges to these traditional values impost by internet's globalization. This is a result of the deterioration of mass media before electronic media which does not subject to state control. In this context some people might use internet in disseminating religious hatred with others, this problem increases with the increasing numbers of such websites in a way that imposes a question about the reasons behind lunching such websites, their impacts, their work mechanisms and their future.

Issue 143__November 2006

Dr. Mohammad Abdulsalam __Is there a cold war between Arabs and Iran?

A hypothetical question needs to be asked that is: Is there a cold war between Arabs and Iran? There are some indicators that assure that the answer is: Yes, some sort of confrontation has already started between a coalition of Arab countries at one side and Iran at the other, this confrontation takes the form of a cold war which is based on indirect actions to avoid real war but achieves the same goal which is to stop and hinder the Iranian expansion in the region. FULL ARTICAL

Nabil Abdulfattah __The Pope's declarations against Islam: an exercise on how to explain

The lecture made by the head of the Catholic Church in one of the German universities in the 12th September 2006 caused angry and violent reactions all over the Arab and Muslim countries especially among the publics, formal religious institutions and political Islamic groups in these countries. The Vatican tried to calm this anger through a number of measures. But the crisis as whole comes as part of the conflicting reality between religions in a globalized framework. Despite the fact that the Pope did not apologize in a clear way, Muslim religious men sent a message that assure that there is an Islamic will to contain religious differences.

Khlil Al anany__Changes of Media Discourse of Alqaeda Organization

Observers of media discourse of Alqaeda Organization can easily notice that qualitative and quantitave changes happened to this discourse. This reflects efforts exerted by the organization's leadership to politically and organizationally restructure it in order to adjust with the requirements of the current phase. The extensive media existence of Ayman Alzawahry (the second man in the organization) reflects the central role he plays in leading these changes and his ability to lead the organization during the coming period.

Gen. Hosam Swielam __The Role of Hezbollah's Missiles during the War on Lebanon

Hezbollah's use of missiles during the War on Lebanon was not surprising to those who observed speeches of the party's secretary general in the few months preceding the war. During these speeches, the party assured it owns thousands missiles. These missiles were of a limited impact on the ground as they were not very accurate, but still it created a state of fear and low spirit among Israelis, because it was the first time Arab missiles reach Israeli cities since the beginning of the Arab Israeli conflict.

Ahmed Diab__The historical agreement on Gibraltar:
will it end the dispute over Septa and Melila

In September 2006 and after a year and a half of continuing negotiations, the trilateral forum of dialogue, Spanish Mister of Foreign Affairs Miguel Moratinos, British Minister of European Affairs Jeffery Hone and head of the government of Gibraltar Peter Caruana signed a historical agreement concerning the 3 hundred years old conflict about the colony. This agreement will have direct impacts on a similar situation that is of the Moroccan Septa and Melila islands in addition to other islands Spain has been occupying for centuries.

Malek Aouni__Is Kosovo Heading To Self Ruling Or Comprehensive Independence?

In September 2006, the Serbian parliament adopted a draft of a new constitution that assures the sovereignty of the republic of Serbia over Kosovo province which is administrated by the United Nations since 1999. The Albanian majority demands comprehensive independence of the province, this draft kills the results of ongoing negotiations between the Serbian minority and the Albanian majority of the population of the province with the participation of a representative of the Serbian government, the draft constitution also kills the hopes of this majority to gain independence.


Issue 142_ October 2006

Hany Raslan__Sudan and the crisis if UN resolution No. 1706 about Darfour

In 31st August 2006 the UN Security Council issued resolution no. 1706, this resolution moved Darfour crisis to a new level of escalation that it never reached before. It puts Sudan in a critical situation where its chances do choose between available alternatives become very limited. The Sudanese government now has only two alternatives, the first is to refuse the resolution which makes it in confrontation with the entire international community, the other one is to accept and comply with the resolution which contains conditions that harm Sudanese sovereignty according to the vision of the Sudanese government. FULL ARTICAL

Ahmed AlSayyed AlNaggar __Economic Sanctions on Iran: Who punishes whom?

Regardless of U S desire to impose sanctions on Iran, and the European- Russian acceptance of this idea, it is possible to say that it is hard for the global economy to undertake a comprehensive economic embargo against Iran in the main time. Especially when it comes to Iranian oil reservations which are estimated at 11.7% of total world oil reservations in addition to Iranian reservations of gas which is estimated at 15.1%, this means that the absence of both Iranian oil and gas will lead to prices to increase in an unprecedented way and world economy might face a severe stagnation.

Sobhi Esiala __Will Hezbollah accept its disarmament?

Any trial to predict the possibility of Hezbollah's acceptance to be disarmed must take into consideration a number of elements, the first of which is related to the party's capacity to adjust with political and strategic changes. The second element is the fact that the party considers its weapons an offer that can not be refused. The third element accepts to discuss its disarmament within a Lebanese dialogue that has no ceil. The forth element refers to Hezbollah's regional relations with Syria and Iran which play a great role in the party's decision. All of these elements indicate that it is hard for the party to accept disarmament.

Mai Qabil __The war on Lebanon and the future of the Israeli government

The drafting process of the Israeli state budget for 2007 is expected to be highly debatable, with its results in the background of these debates the war on Lebanon is expected to play an important role in deciding the future off the ruling coalition. Military leaders will take advantage of the weak position of the Prime Minister and will try to attribute their failure to the budget, it is worth noting that Olmert referred in one of his speeches to he army's need for money. This will lead the new state budget to be unable to meet social promises made by members of the ruling collations during elections, thus conflicts among these parties will be harder and the future of Olmert and his Kadima party will be endangered.

Ibrahim Ahmed Arafat__Peace keeping: a mechanism for enhancing Egyptian role in Africa

Joining Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union, and then participating in African Union forces in Darfour and UN peace keeping forces in south Sudan, all raise questions about the nature of the Egyptian role in Africa and its development; especially as regards to peace keeping in the continent which might be considered one of the mechanisms used to enhance the Egyptian role in Africa and the nature of such a trend, in addition to its impact on the effectiveness of the Egyptian role in the African continent.

Hisham Beshir __The experience of electronic governments in Arab Gulf Countries

Electronic government is becoming a very important demand to improve governmental services presented to all citizens. This type of government is not optional or thinkable any more, but rather it is becoming an urgent need necessary to keep up to fast developing variables. Electronic government is not only a group of electronic applications of information technology but it is the infrastructure that enables any society to move to progress and to be part of the digital civilization of the 21st century, and that is the hope of Arab Gulf Countries.


Issue141__September 2007

Nabil Abdul Fattah__The war of Fatwas about Hezbollah's resistance

During the Israeli- Lebanese war with the role of Shiite Hezbollah, a war of Fatwa erupted between different religious doctrines mainly Sunnis, concerning supporting Hezbollah. This battle is part of the ongoing wars the region witnesses concerning many political and armed conflicts especially among Sunni religious men who were divided between two groups the first of which represented by Sheikh bin Jibrin who forbids any support to the Shiite Hezbollah, while the other team gathers other Sheikhs who accept religious differences and who think that all Muslims should not let Hezbollah down in his war with Israel. FULL ARTICAL


Dr. Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud __The Lebanese War and the Illusions of Rebuilding Regional Structures

Israel tried to use the war on Lebanon to complete its projects to dominate the region with support from the United States, but the results of this war came as a real set back to these projects not only because of the failure of the Israeli army to achieve one of its major goals during this war but also because the results of this war proved the insufficiency of one of the main components of the Israeli project which is unreachable military advancement.

Yosry Azabawy__Withdrawing the Venezuelan Ambassador from Israel:
Between Supporting Arab countries and confrontation with the United States

In the 3rd August 2006 the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez declared the withdrawal of his counties ambassador from Israel protesting the war it waged on Lebanon. This decision was highly praised by Arab and Muslim peoples specially that Chavez was the only leader who took such reaction from the Israeli aggression.
Chavez's decision in this regard was not surprising; as he is known for his sympathy with Arab causes, the decision also is compatible with his opposition to the United States which is considered the main feature of Venezuelan foreign policy under Chavez.


Dr. Ibrahim Albaioumi Ghanem__The charter of developing US- Turkish partnership and its impacts on Arab Causes

The Turkish Minster of Foreign Affairs Abdullah Gull and his American counterpart Condoleezza Rice reached a strategic agreement that was accepted by the two countries in July 2006, the agreement had the title Joint vision and structural dialogue to develop US-Turkish partnership. According to the agreement Turkish foreign policy has mad considerable steps to reactivate regional and international Turkish role.

Dr. Salah Halima __ Union of Islamic courts and the Future of Somalia

In the main time Somalia is facing a hard game with two main players, the first of which is the transitional government which enjoys regional and international recognition but lacks public support and military power, while the other player is Union of Islamic courts which enjoys public support and military power but lacks regional and international recognition. The negotiations held between the parties in June 2006 resulted in a declaration of principles, which was considered a step on the road to national reconciliation but which must be followed by other steps.


Abir Yasin __Ukraine: where did the Orange revolution go?

The orange revolution Ukraine witnessed in November 2004 came with many promises, but after two years of its evolution it seems so far from keeping these promises specially those related to domestic affairs. After less than one year conflicts started among its leaders, then the opposition (led by Victor Yanukovich ) won parliamentary elections, in which was considered public revenge from the president for not achieving the domestic reforms he promised. Thus lots of questions are raised about the relation between the revolution and public hopes.


Issue 140__August 2006

Dr Hamdi Abdel Rahman Hassan__The US hegemony and Africa

The world is currently experiencing a new era of US hegemony over the world. Among the most imperative indicators here is the global nature of the US military whose operations and bases have become scattered all over the world including in Africa, whose oil is a matter of much concern by the US. According to the US National Security Strategy, fighting terrorism and securing oil resources highlight the significance of the African continent in relation to American interests.

Mohammed Fayez Farahat__Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

The Shanghais Cooperation Organisation - named Shanghais 5- was founded to settle border disputes and improve economic and commercial ties among China, Russia and countries of Central Asia. Yet although economic issues topped the organisation's agenda over the second half of the 1990s, an inclination towards security cooperation could have been traced throughout the past few years. This situation raised a host of questions vis-à-vis the organisation's impact on the world system, the geo-strategic conditions in East Asia and Eurasia as well as in Europe itself in light of the enlargement of the EU and NATO to comprise eastern nations.

Mohammed Abbas Nagui__Challenges Facing the Iranian president

A year has passed since the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office. Yet the question is whether he managed to meet his promises particularly on the domestic front. Actually, these promises played a major role in Ahmadinejad's victory over his rival Hashemi Rafsanjani, former president who now heads the Expediency Council. Although in general a year could be too short a time in which to answer such question, the Iranian case is particular due to the swift developments at home made by Ahmadinejad's policy.

General Nabil Sadeq__Star Wars in the Middle East

In April 2006, Israel launched satellite AROS B for gathering information and taking photographs of military installations. The satellite is 2.3 meters in length and 1.2 meters in diameter. It has a camera able to monitor objects with a volume of 0.7 square meters. In so far as the Hebrew State focuses on the Arab and Muslim worlds in general and Iran in particular, it could use the satellite to systematically get information on improvements and changes in many spheres in the region.

Mohammed Hafez Abdel Maguid__The cooperative sector's Developmental role

The cooperative movement in Egypt is among the most authentic ones in the Arab World due to its integrity and wide network of achievements. The movement's impact was felt in areas of job-creating, housing, productive projects, providing cheap commodities and preventing monopoly. Nevertheless, the movement is currently facing serious challenges, and it needs an overhaul in accordance with current legislation organising the cooperatives' work as well as socio-economic changes.

Mohammed Ezz Al-Arab__Non-religious factors explaining the Hijab

Wearing the Hijab has swept through Egyptian society lately. Actually, this phenomenon has much to do with the traditional outlook ingrained in ordinary people's culture and suggesting a direct relationship between the Hijab and society's religiousness. However the fact that the Hejab was non-existent before the 1970s despite the strong religious commitment among Egyptian people then indicates that there are other factors plus religiousness that stand behind the relatively-recent phenomenon.


Issue 139__July 2006

Ahmed Al-Sayed Al-Naggar__The Arab World and the new oil boom

Oil prices have set new records lately, as they soared to reach exceptional and unexpected levels. As for the Arab World, where oil represents the most important export commodity, conventional channels of investing fortunes generated by the oil boom should be reconsidered. Thus a new approach should been adopted to invest oil revenues in industrial, agricultural and service projects in Arab countries - including non-exporters of oil- so as to improve people's living conditions, alleviate poverty, and prevent the spread of violence.FULL ARTICAL

Dr Adel Mohammed Ahmed__The Non-proliferation and the US-Indian nuclear cooperation

The United States and India signed an agreement for nuclear co-operation in July 2005. In fact, the agreement - which was the first of its kind in 25 years- gave legitimacy to India's possession of nuclear weapons despite the repeated announcements by US officials that the agreement would contribute to efforts aiming at the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons due the Indian obligation not to transfer nuclear technology to whatever country. Yet the agreement will likely cast doubts over the credibility of the current non-proliferation system, particularly after the failure of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference held in 2005.

Karim al-Qady__The US administration and the killing of Al-Zarqawi

Following a host of political scandals, the US administration of George Bush managed to hunt down Al-Zarqawi via air strikes through which two 250-kilogram bombs were used. Yet it is certain that the Bush administration lost much of its integrity and people's support as a result of the war on Iraq. Hence al-Zarqawi's killing came too late and it would unlikely help the Bush administration ameliorate its image on the domestic front.

Badr Hassan Shafie__The resumption of US-Libyan relations

On 15 May 2006, the United States decided to have full-fledged diplomatic relations with Libya and remove the latter from the terrorism list. Although the US action was anticipated given Tripoli's sincere cooperation with Washington in the war on terrorism following 9/11, the timing of the American step was surprising since it came 15 days after the release of the US State Department's annual report on terrorism where Libya was included among the countries sponsoring terrorism. Thus many questions are raised vis-à-vis the motives behind the timing of the move, its conditions and the benefits expected to be made by each party.

Hoda al-Bakr__The Syrian opposition

When Syrian president Bashar al-Assad ascended to power in 2000, he made many promises of reform, a move that led various outlawed opposition groups to resume their activities. They thought that the young president would be able to meet his pledges on political reform and open to all people. In this context, the phenomenon of public forums emerged and a statement calling for lifting the state of emergency and boosting political freedoms was signed by 99 intellectual pundits. Yet the regime launched a campaign of arrests against opposition activists and banned forums, hence prompting opposition groups to move forward to express their objectives.

Faten Nassar__Turkey: a new wave of Kurdish violence

The Kurdish question in Turkey has surfaced onto the political scene once more through the latest massive Kurdish uprising in southeast Turkey. Actually, the turmoil had much to do with the oppressive attitude followed by the Turkish government while handling Kurds' demands. The government has actually fallen short of exerting effort to reach a political settlement for the Kurdish problem and persisted to handle the issue through the conventional military approach.


Issue 138-June 2006

Dr Gamal Abdel Gawad__Confronting Hamas

Hamas's triumph in the legislative elections and its subsequent formation of the Palestinian government places a certain responsibility upon the movement that it was keen to avoid for a long time. Hence Hamas has to answer a host of questions regarding its visions of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the future relationship with the Jewish State. In fact, the stances repeatedly declared by Hamas's leadership motivated the US-led financial and diplomatic blockade, which aimed at forcing the movement to modify its position to cope with that of international community, or otherwise, bringing the Hamas-led government to its knees. In this context, foreign powers have various options ranging from imposing an embargo on Hamas, to attempts of containment for the sake of development and stability in the region.


Hani Raslan__Darfur peace agreement

Following two years of exhausting negotiations, a Darfur peace agreement was signed in the Nigerian capital Abuja. It was sponsored by the African Union and a group of regional and international mediators. Despite the reluctance by two rebel movements to get involved in the peace settlement, the agreement however represents a step forward, as it puts an end to the state of war which would have positive implications on the humanitarian disaster in the region. Moreover, it met many of the demands voiced by rebel movements and preserved at the same time the bond between Darfur and the central government in Khartoum. Some issues -including integrating the three current provinces of Darfur into one- were left unresolved until a referendum is held in the future, when arms are laid down and development process is propelled forward.

Karam Said__Italian policy under the centre-left

Italy's centre-left coalition under Romano Prodi has emerged victorious in the parliamentary elections held on 9 and 10 April 2006. Such transformation put an end to the five-year-old rule of the centre-right led by the outgoing Premier Silvio Berlusconi. As for the Middle East, it could benefit from the new situation, since the European powers sympathetic with Arab rights now have greater influence. Yet the whole matter depends on the presence of a political will that could take advantage of the recent changes in the European continent in favour of Arab interests.

Dr Ibrahim el-Bayumi Ghanem__Booming Turkish economy

The Turkish government led by the Development and Justice Party has managed to overcome the deterioration that characterised the economy by the end of Poland Ajawid's cabinet in 2002. Figures published by the State Institute of Statistics show that the Turkish economy is moving forward by leaps and bounds. In this context, five indicators are crucial in tracing the progress achieved in 2005 and economists now predict that a Turkish tiger is on the rise. Yet the question is whether it is possible for Arabs to deeply investigate the Turkish experience and learn from it.

Sami Sabri Abdel Qawi__Eritrea and Israel

Bilateral relations between Eritrea and Israel have remarkably improved over the past two years. The efforts devoted by Israel in this direction proved fruitful in December 2004 when Asmara appointed an ambassador in Tel Aviv. After it had been a mere friend, Eritrea became a strategic ally to the Hebrew State in the Horn of Africa. Therefore, joining forces among Arab countries to undermine the new alliance is crucial.

Issue 137 -May 2006


Dr Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud__Uranium enrichment and the Iranian crisis

The latest experiment to enrich uranium was far off from ameliorating the Iranian position in the face of the growing Western pressure. The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statements that the experiment turned Western pressure fruitless seem to be unrealistic because Tehran barely managed to enrich uranium rather than producing nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the experiment worked to cast doubts over the concealed Iranian motives behind the move in concern.

Dr Hassan Abu Taleb__Arab Peace and Security Council

On the sidelines of Khartoum Arab Summit, foreign ministers singed a document establishing the Arab Peace and Security Council. Such development could be understood in light of two parallel moves: the five-year-old process of restructuring the Arab League, and the latest tendency to adopt preventive measures in resolving conflicts among Arab nations.

Khaled el-Sergani__The Moroccan initiative regarding the Sahara

The recent visit paid by King Mohammed VI to the Western Sahara and his initiative proposing a degree of autonomy in the region signified Morocco's determination to preserve its sovereignty over the Sahara despite mounting regional and international pressure. Accordingly, any solution that would end up with an independent state in the Western Sahara is out of question. The Moroccan regime however is willing to show some indication of flexibility a propos of the region's executive and municipal bodies.

Khalil el-Anani__The Brotherhood's organisational capabilities

Although nobody doubts that the Muslim Brotherhood has a coherent and efficient organisation, the polls of 2005 proved that the group's organisational potentials are far higher than what have been imagined and that the Brotherhood's capabilities of mobilisation are not available to any political force whatsoever in Egypt. It could be said that the remarkably successful electoral performance by the Brotherhood has much to do with organisational factors.

Dr Amr Hashem Rabie__The Conservative Party

The foundation of a new party usually leads to enrich political life and give a momentum to democracy, as it supposedly contribute in fulfilling objectives of pluralism. Yet this hypothesis does not apply to the Egyptian case due to the chains restricting activities of political parties. Thus it is unlikely for the newly-licensed Conservative Party to have a substantial role in pushing forward the democratic process in Egypt.

Adel Abdel Sadeq__Electronic voting in Egypt

Among the features characterising the 2005 parliamentary elections was stressing the connection between technology and politics in candidates' electoral campaigns. Thus Demands were voiced to implement the electronic voting system applied in Western countries as well as in Brazil, India, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain. These demands nevertheless call into question the possibilities of introducing this system in Egypt and the obstacles associated with this process


Issue 136-April 2006


Mohammed Fayez Farahat__Is the US-Pakistani Alliance moving back?

The US policy is currently leaning towards a new pattern of alliances and relations with regional powers. In this context, it seems that co-operation with India takes precedence over that with Pakistan. Since this change is expected to work against the Pakistani strategic interests, Islamabad will certainly - if the ruling regime is to be changed-repudiate the coalition with the US in favour of stronger relations with China, which would result in a death certificate for the US-Pakistani alliance.

Ayman el-Sayed Abdel Wahab__The crisis of the Engineers' Syndicate

Lately, there has been a row in the corridors of the Engineers' Syndicate over the long-lasting judicial sequestration, which prevents holding elections to choose a syndicate's council. In fact, this situation raises questions over the responsibility of existing legal frameworks for the stagnation currently prevalent in some professional syndicates.

Dr Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud__Egypt and nuclear proliferation in the
Middle East

The Egyptian stance vis-à-vis the latest Iranian nuclear crisis is consistent with the policy Egypt has adopted since the 1970s. The magnitude of this policy is to use nuclear crises that erupt in the region from time to time in a way that helps fulfil Egyptian interests, particularly with regard to the alarming Israeli nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, Cairo does not overlook other regional nuclear crises.

Mohammed Abdel Qader__Iraqis' reservations over al-Jaafari

The attitude Ibrahim al-Jaafari followed in dealing with his enemies and friends alike has actually created several complicated problems. Thus al-Jaafari's reappearance as possible premier in the new Iraqi government casts doubt over his ability to forge alliances that could work in his interest, especially when taking into account the present turbulent political atmosphere in Iraq.

Sobhi Essaila__The Danish cartoons and affecting public opinion

The row over the cartoons published in Danish newspapers and depicting Prophet Mohammed with satirical ridicule drove many writers in our region to see the issue as a deliberate attitude aiming at the defamation of Islam. It also triggered a host of surveys via the Internet to trace Muslims' response to the crisis. In light of the absence of reliable surveys to direct the public opinion in the Muslim World vis-à-vis this crisis, the article investigates a survey on the question in concern conducted by al-Jazeera website on the Internet.

Hesham al-Sadeq__The Egyptian government's handling of avian flu

The rapid spread of avian flu in Egypt poses many questions regarding the way the Egyptian government handled this serious crisis as well as its ability to contain its social and economic repercussions. Although at first sight, one could think that the government exerted huge efforts to contain the crisis, close investigation would unveil the apparent defects of the way through which this problem has been dealt with.

Issue 135 - March 2006

Hussam Sowelam__Obstacles hindering military action against Iran

There is a host of factors that make a military action against Iran a certainly difficult task. First and foremost, there are too many targets to attack if military action is to take place. Moreover, definite information is not abundantly available due to the secrecy imposed on these targets and the existence of many artificial ones. The Iranian general intelligence for its part managed recently to arrest several spies working for hostile countries. Last but nit least, striking nuclear positions in Iran might create environmental disasters that would be difficult to contain.

Dr. Walid Mahmoud Abdel Nasser__Factors behind the rise of the left in Latin America

The past few years witnessed significant political change in Latin America as leftist candidates won presidential elections held in some countries of the continent. Although the leftist influence in the past was limited to Cuba and Venezuela, nominees of the left managed in the past few years to assume the presidency in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Chile. This new phenomenon could be attributed to the left's traditional weight in Latin America, the public's willingness to ameliorate harsh socio-economic conditions, the waning US popularity, and the revival of the national liberation fervor.

Hani Nesseria__History and reality in the Danish cartoons crisis

It seems that the Danish cartoons express a reaction to the state of suppression felt after the murder of Theo Van Gogh, Dutch film-maker in 2004 by a Muslim extremist, which urged writers and artists in the West to avoid any reference to Islam for fear that they could be subject to extremists' revenge. The Jyllands- Posten's competition- which was preceded by similar ones regarding political and religious figures in Europe- represented an opportunity to find an outlet of the suppression felt by European artists and writers. Moreover, the hegemony of the right in Denmark and the rise of neo-Nazis who focus their attacks on Jews and Muslims have much to do with the crisis.

Ahmed Diab__Cultural factors impeding Turkey's membership in the EU

In October 2005, it was formally announced that Turkey would start talks to join the EU. Yet these talks could last for ten years and will not necessarily result in the emergence of Turkey as an EU full-fledged member. This is due to major obstacles, least of which are Political and economic divergences between Turkey and EU members, since these could be overcome with the passage of time. More important however are factors in connection with culture and religion, which are so present in the talks' background.

Samia Bebers__For a transitional Arab parliament

Political systems in the Arab World are far away off from being homogeneous. While some countries have quasi-appointed consultative councils, others have elected parliaments. In this context, it is of much difficult to perceive the Arab Transitional Parliament as an authentic people's organisation. Hence one should not expect the parliament to perform its supposed role concerning legislation, amending constitutions and monitoring the executive. At any rate, the Arab Transitional Parliament's competence will depend upon the political will of the Arab League's members and their success to form an effective regional Arab system.

Ashraf Soliman__Maritime accidents in the Arab World

Maritime disasters are those of ship collisions, explosions, oil leakages and the like. They usually cost the lives of many and lead to material damages and environmental problems. Because the Red Sea is one of the strategic maritime passages used by oil vessels, it is usually prone to accidents, particularly the northern part of the sea (Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba) due to the area's narrow passages.


Issue 134- February 2006

Dr Mohammed Abdel Salam__Peaceful nuclear programmes in the Middle East

Nations that are more likely to develop peaceful nuclear programmes in the Middle East include Iran, Turkey and Libya. Israel for its part had a nuclear programme for civil purposes a long time ago. Yet the current situation could encourage other countries to follow suit. As for Egypt, it already has strong bases for nuclear energy as well as a positive image in the eyes of the international community. These factors could urge Cairo to back-track on its previous decisions postponing the introduction of nuclear power plants.

Said Okasha__Will Kadima emerge victorious in the Israeli elections?
Sharon's absence from the Israeli political scene -as he remains in a deep coma- could work in Kadima Party's interest. For the electorate might provide the party with wide support due to sympathy with Sharon's health crisis. But if he passes away before the elections, Kadima could face a retreat in popularity particularly when taking into account the public's confused position vis-à-vis Ehud Olmert, his successor. In any case, it is still too early to foresee the results of the forthcoming Israeli elections.

Dr Mohammed Khalid el-Azaar__Hamas in the coming phase

It seems that Hamas is willing to share other parties -particularly Fateh- in handling the negotiation file. Accordingly, Hamas proposed forming a national front for this purpose. One could argue that the lack of information at its disposal and the limited experience it has with regard to handing negotiations stand behind the position it adopts a propos of this question. At the same time, Hamas's attitude expresses some indication of goodwill and a tendency towards co-operation with forces form across Palestinian political spectrum. Yet it is unlikely for Fateh to positively respond with Hamas's initiative, despite the readiness to co-operate shown by some of Fateh's members. It is still possible however that Hamas and Fateh take refuge in the PLO umbrella, which would enrich the former's experience and play out in favour of the peace process.

Khalid Hanafi Ali__The stereotyped Egyptian in Sudan

For the dominant negative image of Egyptians in Sudan to be changed, frankness and transparency are crucial. As for repeated commercial televised greetings by officials from both countries, they do more harm than good. Pushing forward informal ties among Egyptian and Sudanese people is pivotal to create a friendly atmosphere to help formal circles set a long-lived formula for co-operation between the two nations. Reforming schools curricula in both countries and activating the role of Egyptian civil society in Sudan could work in the same direction. One could say that the Egyptian negative image in Sudan has much to do with historical and psychological factors. Yet it is in the interest of both countries to overcome the current state of misunderstanding and stand side by side in the face of the challenges they both meet.

Abir Yasseen__Islamic Jihad in the coming phase

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad Movement has repeatedly depended on suicidal attacks to end periods of quietness and re-assert itself as a resistant group that rejects all kinds of compromise. What makes the movement more adamant in relying on this strategy is that it has no role whatsoever in society or politics. The logical outcome is that the influence of Islamic Jihad grows at the time of the uprising and wanes when peace talks move ahead. Therefore, it is unlikely for Islamic Jihad to undergo substantial changes in the future, because the current state of affairs is consistent with the movement's orientations. Things are different for Hamas, which is expected for to witness remarkable changes in the near future.

Al-Hytham Zaafaran__Probable crisis facing Arab funds abroad

Investing Arab money reserves engendered by the latest wave of monetary flows has different channels, as they could be inward-directed or outward-directed. Yet it is obvious that the process is surrounded by complexities reflected through the row that erupts every now and then over the threats putting Arab funds in jeopardy.

Issue 133 January 2006

Dr Hassan Abu Taleb__The Yemeni President's changing stances towards the elections

The announcement by Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Yemeni President that he would not run for a new term in office seems unserious. In fact, such avowal aimed to encourage other parties to field candidates for the sake of having real contest among different political forces. The Yemeni President has no intention to relinquish political power, but to go through more heated elections compared with that held in 1996, when the whole process was artificial because Saleh was competing with a candidate from his own party (General People's Congress). Even though Saleh's objectives could be viewed as virtuous, his nomination for a new term would cast doubts over the electoral process altogether.

Dr Walid Mahmoud Adel Nasser__Reconciliation in Nepal

Over the past years, several rounds of negotiations were held between legal opposition parties and Maoist rebels in Nepal. There were times of progress and other of retreat. What is special about the latest agreement signed by the two parties is that it enjoyed the implicit approval of China and India, the two great regional powers that have a say in Nepal's politics. Furthermore, opposition parties and the Maoist rebels were keen to offer concessions for the purpose of reaching an agreement that lies somewhere between reconciliation and coalition.


Mohammed Abbas Nagui__Religious orientations of the Iranian President

The Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's repeated comments regarding the awaited Mahdi gained wide concern among the public. He went further to raise the issue in his speech before the UN General Assembly on 15 September, as he said that the primary mission of the Iranian Revolution was to lay the ground for the appearance of the Mahdi. This rhetoric aroused a debate over the vision of the new ruling regime in Iran with reference to the principle of wilayat al-faqih (trusteeship of the Jurisprudent) as well as the regime's priorities. By the same token, Ahmadinejad's discourse has a remarkable impact over handling the nuclear file and Tehran's stance vis-à-vis Israel.

Mahmoud Sidqi__The European Constitution and the future of the EU

Although the organisational structure of the EU fulfils many of the objectives targeted by the European Constitution, such structure could turn more powerful if the constitution was abrogated. Yet despite the setback resulting from the failure to pass the European Constitution, the EU is well-experienced in handling similar crises while moving ahead towards a unified Europe.

Hesham el-Sadeq__Shanty areas surrounding Cairo

It is extremely difficult to find a radical solution to the problem of the shanty areas encircling Cairo. Nevertheless, some procedures could alleviate the acuteness of the problem. First, new laws should be passed to ban random construction, and areas specified for building should be determined in a way that prevents misusing them. A new population policy has to be adopted through driving people to sites in the desert that are provided with services. Most importantly however is the acceleration of the economic reform process while taking into account social dimensions to provide shanty dwellers with outlets other than violence and terrorist activities.

Hani Ayad__Religious tension in Egypt

The late 1990s represented a turning point with regard to religious tension in Egyptian society - usually wrongly called 'sectarian sedition'. The fact that religious tension flares up at the moment has much to do with the method followed by the state while tackling the phenomenon of terrorism. Moreover, the persistence in authorising security apparatuses to deal single-handedly with this file further complicated the issue. Thirdly, one could say that religious tension now finds fertile soil in which it could grow.