2008
December
Issue
Significance of Cultural Shift in U.S.
Elections
Mahmoud Hamdy Abu El-Kasem
The outcome of U.S.
elections in November 4, 2008, shows the specificities of the American democratic
system, where the democratic candidate Barack Obama won the republican
candidate John McCain, in elections that changed a set of concepts and
values, and this brings us to the nature of democratic systems in
general, which requires the existence of built-in mechanisms to correct the
system's path if it deviated.
Thus, this new incident would constitute a buffer between two phases
before & after Obama, both within & outside the U.S. community.
How Obama Won the U.S. Presidential Elections
Alaa
Salem
U.S. presidential elections is considered
a historic election compared to scenes of the past, where its output brought
the first black president demolishing the structure of the traditional
institution of presidency, in addition to its indicators with regard to
voting trends, and the rate of popular participation. The question here,
how did Barack Obama win, and break many of the givens? If it is
difficult to talk about the complete fall of the presidency institution,
which relied on the concept of WASP, it is certain that the
institution is currently facing structural problems by the arrival of the
President who blew up its four components in one go, as he is black not a
White-skinned, also he is neither an Anglo-Saxon nor
a Protestant.
Constraints on the Palestinian National
Dialogue
Mohamed Abu El-Fadl
When the Egyptian moves began practically in late October 2008
to bring Fatah and Hamas on the same table, a wide range of obstacles has
appeared, preventing them to meet, as was scheduled in November 9, 2008.
Statements that have been issued by both sides revealed that there is no real
will to promote the success of the 2nd round of dialogue, due
to factional, regional and international factors, and thus, it is unknown
whether dialogue would, or not, be out of this impasse!
Union for the Mediterranean: Aspirations and
Obstacles
Dr. / Osama Mkhemar
Barcelona Process Initiative:
Union for the Mediterranean, was launched during the events of the Paris
summit held in July 13, 2008, to move into a new phase, but related to previous
conventions. One of the most important Arab gains from the initiative was
the emphasis in the Final Declaration of the Marseille meeting of Foreign
Ministers on the importance of the Arab Peace Initiative, in addition to stipulating the efforts of Member States to free the
Middle East from weapons of mass destruction and these were the two
issues often opposed by Israel as it possesses nuclear weapons.
Conflict
in Eastern Congo: Dimensions and Geo-Strategic Implications
Dr. / Hamdy Abdel Rahman
Since the end of the political
transition process in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which
included the election of President Joseph Kabila in 2006, conflict has
never ceased in Kivu provinces east of the
state. Perhaps the statement issued by rebel leader General Laurent
Nkunda that he seeks to overthrow the regime in Kinshasa, represents a
serious threat to the legitimacy of the Congolese State and the security
and stability of the region as a whole. And this is backed to the weaknesses
of the peace process and the related transition phase, as well as the
fragility of the Congolese political institutions.
Young
Mujahideen Movement and Instability in Somalia
Saneya El-Feky
With the continuation
of armed clashes between Somali government forces backed by Ethiopian
forces and the Mujahideen Youth Movement, this threatens to continue
indefinitely, the interim Somali government has sought to sign an
agreement in June 9th 2008 in Djibouti, with a wing of the
Alliance opponents for the Liberation of Somalia, its most important
items provided for stopping the armed clashes between the two parties,
and the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces. However, opponents refused to
abide by the Convention, and announced the continuation of military
confrontation until the last exit of Ethiopian troops.
November
Issue
1 - Egypt & the Arabs and the
possibilities of confronting the global financial crisis Mr. / Ahmed
El-Sayed El-Najjar
Egypt and other Arab states
were influenced by the global financial crisis, directly and indirectly,
through the trend taken by foreign investors in the Egyptian Stock
Exchange and the rest of the Arab stock markets, of selling large portion
of their portfolios for getting financial liquidity and improving their status
in their home countries. Also, Arab economies were affected by the
significant decline in oil prices. On the other hand, the crisis has led
to a decline in the real economy, which would automatically be reflected
on trade, investment and tourism negatively.
2 - Qaradawi's Declarations: Doctrinal
Controversy or Inter-states Conflict?
Mr. /
Nabil Abdel-Fattah
The sectarian conflict within
Islam, is one of the most prominent historical features of the political,
ethnic and religious conflicts, it relies on the sectarian and doctrinal
disagreement regarding some elements of the Shiite nodal system. Thus,
the current Sunni - Shiite controversy, which was fueled by some of
Sheikh Yusef El-Qaradawi's remarks concerning the rise of Shiite tide in
the region, does not seem to be new, however, there is a clear conflict
in the region on the political positions and regional roles based on this
sectarian conflict
3 -
Security Agreement between USA & Iraq… Prospects & Contents
Mohamed
Abd El-Kader
Debate & controversy, tough talks, ongoing negotiations, drafts and
amendments thereto; these were the characteristics of the American-Iraqi
government talks about the security agreement between each other. The
positions of the Iraqi government varied according to its components, affiliations
and positions from the U.S. occupation, as well as its regional links,
and whether or not it supports the continuation of the American forces
for long periods of time in Iraq.
4 - Afghanistan and the Possibilities of
Negotiation with Taliban
Ahmed
Diab
The Afghan President Hamid
Karzai declaration in early October 2008 concerning his intention to call
the Saudi monarch King Abdullah bin Abd El-Aziz, to mediate talks between
the Kabul government and Taliban, represented a new turn in the situation
of Afghanistan. Since the fall of Taliban in November 2001, the Afghan
president kept on describing Taliban & the movement in general as
enemies to the people, refusing any dialogue with Taliban, and also U.S.
forces and their allies rejected any dialogue with the movement, arguing
that negotiation with Taliban give it legitimacy in the streets of
Afghanistan.
5 – Qatar Initiative to resolve Darfur
Crisis: Chances of Success and Failure
Akram Hossam Abd El-Raouf
Sudan is witnessing a debate on some of the initiatives put forward to
resolve the Darfur crisis, the most important being the Arab-Qatar peace
initiative, which was preceded by other Sudanese & regional initiatives.
This raises some questions about the motives and goals of these
initiatives, specifically those who stand behind it and the chances of
success or failure, and the feasibility to solve the complex issues of
Sudan.
6 –
Mauritania: Overview on Settlement
Initiatives
Badr
Hassan Shafei
Mauritania is currently
suffering from lack of stability, especially after the recent military
coup in August 2008. The political situation could see further flammable
tension at any moment, if there had not been a settlement mechanism
agreed upon by all parties, especially with so far limited clashes in early
October 2008 between the security forces and supporters of the opposition
National Front for the Defense of Democracy. But in light of the
maintained status-quo, the front may have to organize demonstrations by
force, and thus violent clashes with government forces would occur.
October
Issue
1 - Syrian
Decision to exchange Embassies with Lebanon
Mahmoud Hamdy Abu El-Kassem
The foreign ministers of Syria
and Lebanon in October 15, 2008 laid a basis for a new era of relations
between the two states by declaring the start of diplomatic relations
between Syria and Lebanon, in accordance with the Vienna Convention, this
opens the door to the legalization of the relationship in a normal
context after long Syrian intervention in Lebanese affairs, and then
acrimony and estrangement lasted for more than three years since the
Syrian departure from Lebanon in 2005, France's Sarkozy had a significant
role in the return of these relations.
2 -
Kirkuk and the Iraqi Provincial Elections Crisis
Khaled Ali Abd El-Khalek
Disagreements over
power-sharing in the city of Kirkuk between Kurds from one hand, Arabs
and Turkmen on the other hand, and the amendments relating to the
application of Local Elections Law in Kirkuk, was reflected on the
amendment of the local elections law or postponing it for a later stage
so that a consensus among all political and ethnic forces in Kirkuk is
reached, perhaps this is why the political forces in the Iraqi house of
Representatives approved the held of Iraqi provincial election in 14 provinces out of 18 by the end of
January 2009.
3 - Bahraini Minister's Comments: Arabic
Edition of the Middle East
Sobhy Essaila
During his speech at the United
Nations at the end of September 2008, Bahraini Foreign Minister "Sheikh
Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa" declarations, which called for the
establishment of a Middle East Gathering including the Middle East and
North African states, without exception, raised a lot of controversy and
criticism, because of the sensitivity of any proposal or initiative
calling or trying to open the door for the integration of Israel in the
region, a proposal which seemed to be similar to Perez's Middle East call,
but this time by an Arabic tongue.
4 - Pirates of Somalia: Internal
Disability & External Confrontation
Eman Marei
Somali pirates caused disturbance
in the passage of the Arabian Sea between Yemen and Somalia, which is considered
to be one of the most busiest shipping areas in the world, piracy has
also become a trade amounting to several millions of dollars and
attracting many Somalis using different political and social caps for
their illegal activities. Estimates from the International Bureau of the
Maritime shows that 60 attacks were recorded during 2008, with the
detention of more than 12 ships at the same time, including one carrying
33 tanks from Israel to southern Sudan, as well as the detention of
hundreds of sailors.
5 – Tax
Exemption for Private Educational Establishments
Alaa Thabet
The recent period has witnessed a lot of attempts and discussions on the
development of the educational system, specifically the draft of
developing general secondary education, this was ended by only adopting
the earlier previously processed perception. On the other hand, there was
little concern given for analyzing the implications of another development
having no less negative impact on the educational system, as the Ministry
of Finance has introduced some amendments to the Income Tax Act (no.114
of 2008), relating to educational establishments, and this poses many
questions on the issue of tax-exempt status of educational
establishments.
September Issue
Zardari and
Pakistan return to no.1 square
Beshir Abd El-Fattah
After Pervez Musharraf stepped
down the Presidency of Pakistan in August 2008, & electing the
President of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Asif Zardari early in
September 2008, instability still prevails Pakistan, especially as the
political movement was limited, and the devolution of power was insubstantial
as it has not been accompanied by dramatic changes affecting the
Pakistani volatile reality, and thus the state became a step closer to
disorder again.
Israel
and the Underlying Causes of the Russian-Georgian War
Samar Ibrahim
Under escalating
Russian-Georgian war, the Israeli policy toward Georgia is to attract
some states of regional & strategic importance, as this represents an
appropriate goal to Tel Aviv for achieving many interests and accessing
many gains. Hence, some believe that the Israeli role in the recent
Caucasus war between Russia and Georgia was not limited to encouraging either
parties to wage it, but extended to large extents, especially with the balance
in favor of the Russian Bear at the expense of Georgia.
The Next Scenario in Mauritania
Badr Hassan Shafei
The bloodless coup in Mauritania on the sixth of August 2008, toppled
the nascent democracy that took place in the state 15 months ago, a
period which witnessed the stepping down of the state's former military
regime, and the holding of free and transparent multiparty elections
resulting in the victory of a civilian president for the country. The
coup was staged by General Mohamed Walad Abd El-Aziz, & it raised several
questions regarding its timing, internal and external causes and
implications, and then finally, the future of the democratic process in
the state.
<B> North Transport Passage - South:
Will it substitute the Suez Canal?
General/ Hossam Sweilem
Talks on the North - South Transport project which was issued in
2000 by Russia, Iran and India, have been renewed, it is considered to be
one of the most important and largest projects in the transport, traffic
and transit for the 21st century. It is assumed that the
project (North – South Passage) would present a new advanced linkage between
Asia and Europe, and this would constitute a strong competition to another
important line of transportation, namely, the Suez Canal, and some
experts expect that this project would negatively affect the prestige and
importance of the canal.
Information
Security: Has it become a National Security Issue?
Hesham El-Beshir
Scientific and technical
developments have resulted in the reliance almost entirely on computer
systems in most of the technical and information requirements. Since the
cold war, the information conflict between the two super-powers was at
its peak, with the emergence of new areas of conflict in the world and
the changing nature of IT systems and the States, there has been
tremendous reliance on the computer, and penetration in order to obtain information
on the political, military and economic issues has become more important.
Hence, the information security of nations, individuals &
institutions gained a significant importance.
The New
Traffic Law: Much Controversy & Doubts about the Results
Eman Marei
The traffic crisis and road
accidents in Egypt, represent a serious challenge at both the human and
physical levels, and due to the fact that Egypt has the highest
percentage of traffic accidents; where 1959 annual traffic accidents for
every 100 thousand citizens are recorded, the People Assembly issued the
new traffic law No. 121 for the year 2008. With the new law came into
effect, many of the economic and social concerns have raised for the
implementation of its provisions, as some experts considered that its aims
are not to regulate the traffic, but to collect money to compensate for
what the state treasury lack as a result of financial and administrative
corruption.
August
2008
Issue
no. 164
1 -
Palestinians in Iraq ... The plight of Asylum and Targeting
Ahmed
Diab
The Palestinian refugees
residing in Iraq, directed a message appealing the European Union to
allow them to enter the European territories for being directly targeted
by the Iraqi militias & the U.S. occupation. The Palestinian refugees
in Iraq sum to around 15 thousand refugees living under the threat of the
militias which killed 250 Palestinians after being abducted and brutally
tortured. In addition to the arrest and the loss of 60 Palestinians and
wounding over 1800 Palestinian due to the indiscriminate bombing
targeting the places of their gatherings.
2 - Israel's Future: Prospects of Continuity
& Probabilities of Collapse in the coming years (1948-2008)
Dr./
Tarek Fahmy
In May 2008, Israel celebrated
the anniversary of 60 years since the establishment of the Zionist state,
and regardless of the Israeli official vision, there is virtually
unanimous agreement that Israel is now facing a fatal real moment. What
is happening today in Israel needs to be objectively monitored and
analyzed, especially that there is a real movement within the Israeli
society expressed by emerging groups, and the other is on the sidelines
of the parties and the third calls for Israel to review its vision, in
the context of reviewing the political reality both regionally &
internally.
3 - Challenges of Liberalism in the Gulf
Hani
Neserah
Liberalism is retreated on the Arab
level while rises on the Gulf level, despite of the Gulf culture, which
represents a constraint on the liberal idea, such as tribalism &
sectarianism. This provision, however, remains valid in two main
dimensions: first, the intellectual dimension represented in the
prevalence of the liberal idea among the intellectual, academic and media
elites significantly. Second, the economic dimension, as represented by
the free market and investment, and non-state intervention in the
management of the economy and integration into the globalization. As for
the political dimension represented in the constitutional and
institutional reform in the Gulf, it still needs much so that it can bear
fruit.
4 – The Mediterranean Bet: between
Reality and Hope
Mohamed Aboul Fadl
France has achieved its
apparent objectives from the Mediterranean project put forward by its
president Nicolas Sarkozy. The summit was held in Paris on July 13th
& 14th, 2008, in the presence of 43 heads of states and
governments from north and south of the Mediterranean. The French
project, which was launched to satisfy all the parties, has passed
through periods of rise and fall which deepened the division on the idea
itself, until talks were held to lay the principle foundations for the
relationship between Europe and its Southern Mediterranean, based on a
network of mutual interests, without compromising the main principles of
the interactions in the Middle East.
5 - Turkey: To the Fore, or To the Back?
Dr./ Ibrahim El-Bayoomy Ghanem
The Supreme
Constitutional Court in Turkey (Wednesday, July 30th) provided
for refusing to ban the ruling Justice and Development Party, & it
only directed a warning to the party in the form of cutting by half the
assistance obtained from the State, and the Court confirmed that there
was no evidence to prove the accusations made by the Attorney General to
the Party and its leaders and a number of its parliamentarians. The
court's provision means that Turkey has chosen to move forward on the
path of democratization, which means that they got rid of the legacy of
authoritarian exclusionary state to an open democratic system based on
respecting people's freedoms.
July
2008
Issue
no. 163
1 - Houthis
and confrontation with the Yemen State
Dr. /
Hassan Abu taleb
Houthis imposed themselves on
political & military confrontation arenas in Yemen over the past four
years. Several years ago, there was little to be said about them, but
with the continued confrontation with the State, questions have been
arisen to know how they managed to confront the security forces and the
army, despite the potential difference between the two parties, particularly
as the state has determined this time to resolve the confrontation with
Houthis for many important considerations: the continued fighting gave
the impression that the State is no longer able to extend their control
over the country, in addition to the presence of a regional dimension
represented in the support of Saudi Arabia and the United States to the
resolution.
2 – Will Syria negotiate Israel
directly?!
Sobhy Essaila
The Syrian Declaration on
accepting the negotiations with Israel through a Turkish mediation, shows
a clear and serious Syrian desire to steer the negotiations file stalled
since 2000, and push the Turkish mediation toward success, regardless of
what might be construed by those negotiations. However, Syria, which has
confirmed its adherence to its vision on how to resolve the conflict with
Israel, won't probably reach the extent of direct negotiations with
Israel. The developments in this file is nothing more than a movement in
place by both parties, in order to avoid significant losses that may
arise due to refrain about the resumption of negotiations.
3 - Major Obstacles to General Michel
Suleiman
Ibrahim Ghali
By electing him as a president
of Lebanon on last May 25th, the army commander General Michel
Suleiman put an end to six months of presidential vacuum and 18 months of
the opposition sit-in downtown Beirut, and the Lebanese people began
later in the formation of a government of national unity and return to
the negotiating table to discuss the defense strategy. The content of his
inaugural speech came compromising as it opened the way for serious
dialogue regarding all the urgent Lebanese problems. Will Suleiman's
previous consensual military practices be reflected on the political
situation; and whether the new president will be able to open new
horizons have been closed long due to the political class, leaders of
sects and political forces behaviors?
4 - Kuwait's Election: Is there a real change?!
Khaled
Abd El-Khalek
On May 7th 2008, Kuwait
has witnessed the 13th National Assembly elections. These elections
were held as a result of the Kuwaiti Emir decision in March 19th
of the same year to dissolve the National Assembly following the
resignation submitted by the government, claiming not to be able to
cooperate with the Legislature. In fact, the dissolution of the National
Assembly and the call for elections is not a new thing to the State of
Kuwait, this is the fifth time where it is dissolved before completing
its term since the beginning of the 1st legislature in 1963. At
the end, the confrontational nature which characterizes the relationship
between the government and Parliament, would continue as a challenge to the
continuation of the parliament that suffers from its new structure which
carries seeds of crisis with the government more than the previous one.
5 - The Escalation in Abkhazia and South
Ossetia ... Why now?
Khadiga
El-Zeghemi
The European & American
support to Georgia in its conflict with the separatist territories of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the face of the Russian bias toward those
territories led to adapting the conflict as if it is between Russia and
the West, and this renewed the atmosphere of the cold war which was ended
by the disintegration of the Soviet Union. However, the current crisis is
not likely to evolve to armed clash, where the conditions will be frozen
as it was a long time ago; all what Russia wanted was to deliver a
message to the West that it is still alert and able to defend its
interests.
6 - Towards a Strategy for reforming Secondary Education
in Egypt
Dr./ Zaki El-Behery
The Egyptian Education is
suffering from many chronic problems and crises, and this is reflected
significantly on the level of graduates. In spite of the complexity of
the crisis, the attempt to exit is possible, if there is will and
seriousness to get out of this impasse. The first entry for reforming the
educational system is to build an educational administrative decentralized
system, this idea was not far from the minds of intellectuals in Egypt,
but the real problem is the slowdown in the reform and development move.
June
2008
Issue
no. 162
1- Security Agreement Negotiations between the United States and Iraq
Dr. / Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud
The American long-term military
presence in Iraq is one of the thorny issues raised since the American
occupation of Iraq in April 2003, as there was a widespread belief that
the United States entered Iraq to stay for a coming long time, but that
issue has been less tackled for a long time by senior U.S. administration
officials, for considerations related to the desire to avoid political
complications that may arise from declaring a clear policy regarding this
issue, not only inside Iraq, but even within the United States itself, and
also throughout the international arena as a whole.
2- The United States & the
Accusation of Syria of carrying out nuclear activities
Atef Sakr
The American declaration on what it described as new details related to
the Israeli air raid on Syria, refers to a special significance, since this
announcement came in April 2008 after 7 months of the operation which
took place in September 6th, 2007. This raised the question
about the significance of this, and the accusation of Syria to the carry
out nuclear activities. Can this declaration be considered as a threat to
Syria to escape an imminent war that may occur between the U.S. and Iran?
And that in order to avoid war, it must abandon its support for Lebanese
Hezbollah and Palestinian militant group Hamas.
3- Mauritanian-Israeli relations: Anger
inhibited by Interests
Atteya Essaioy
The former Mauritanian
President Maaouya Walad Tayaa established relations
with Israel in 1999, contrary to the feelings and affiliations of the
Mauritanian people, who opposed this strongly, which caused a sensation
on the feasibility of retention of these relations, especially with the
fall of Walad Tayaa regime. However, the political and economic
consequences that may result from cutting relations with Israel, have
made successive governments slow in taking such a step, as Mauritania is one
of thirty poorest states in the world, making it in a clear need for foreign
aid it receives from the United States and the European Union.
4- The Arab Media Document & the
Future of Satellite Channels
Saneya
El-Feky
The Arab information
ministers held an extraordinary meeting in Cairo in February 12th,
2008, where they agreed on a document called the principles of organizing
space, radio and television broadcasting in the Arab region. This
document raised widespread controversy because it tackles vital issues
that would affect the freedom of expression provided by some Arab
satellite channels for the Arab citizen. The desire to tighten control over
the satellite channels is due to the fact that it has given room for the
voices that criticize Arab governments, and discuss issues that are not tackled
by governmental media.
5- Electronic Protest & the new
actors in the political life
Adel Abd El-Sadek
The call for April 6th
strike and the call for a similar strike on May 4th, were not
the only two events in which Internet bloggers played an instigator role,
these were preceded by a similar role in past events in which they were
characterized by being away from belonging to any political trend. The
evolution of the role of the Internet in organizing political activities
and influencing public opinion had made the Internet an important player
in the Egyptian political life, as a mass media used as an outlet for
expression by new actors who have the capacity to address public opinion
and the formulate its goals and adhere to its problems more and faster
than traditional institutions.
6- Administrative Division of the
Egyptian Governorates
Mohamed Abd El-Kader
On April 17th, 2008,
President Hosni Mubarak has issued a presidential decree for establishing
Helwan and October 6 governorates, this was followed by amending the
administrative boundaries of 4 governorates, so that Egypt has become
composed of 28 governorates, and Great Cairo of five governorates (Cairo
- Giza - Qaliubiya - October 6 - Helwan). The resolution appeared from
the viewpoint of many people as a sudden one, particularly as it was
amended only a day after its promulgation. This has prompted some to consider
the decision as a non-deliberate, and
would cause great confusion on several levels, as well as the depletion
of time, effort and money.
May
2008
Issue no. 161
1- Major
military maneuvers and training thought in Israel
Dr. / Mohamed Qadry Said
During the 1st week of April 2008,
Israel conducted the largest military maneuver in its history, its goal
was the training on the lessons learned from the 2006 war between Israel
and Hezbollah, and also getting ready to deal with a broad package of the
domestic, regional and international anticipated threats. Although the
conduct of military maneuvers and exercises is normal, but the recent
military exercise in Israel is associated with an extraordinary special situation
dominated by tensions and polarization and a
looming regional war that could be triggered at any moment.
2- Turkish Justice and Development Party
(AKP) and the judicial coup d'état attempt
Ahmed Diab
On March 14th, 2008,
the Turkish Attorney General Yalchen Kaba filed a petition in the Supreme
Constitutional Court against the ruling Justice and Development Party,
calling for the closure of the party and the prohibition of political
activity of its leaders and prominent members for five years, on charges of
opposing the secularist principles enshrined in the Turkish Constitution.
The approval of the Supreme Constitutional Court to consider the case might
mean a judicial coup d'etat that could topple the AKP government. Such a
case may lead the state to a big vacuum that would lead to resorting to
early elections.
3- Private Security Service Companies in
Iraq
General / Hossam Sweilem
The issue of private security service
companies working in Iraq, has emerged
following the scandal revealed by American & global media on accusing
the contractors of the private security company (Blackwater) of killing &
injuring Iraqi civilians. The investigations has widened to reveal the
involvement of this company workers in much of the violent and
destructive actions in Iraq since 2005. Reports indicate that the number
of workers in the security companies in Iraq totaled about 300 thousand
persons in accordance with the policy initiated by the former U.S.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld , which provides for the
privatization of some security functions, but this had serious
repercussions.
4- Israel & the dialectic of Racism
and Anti-Semitism
Mai Kabil
Israel decided to boycott the 2nd conference against racism
held by the United Nations in the beginning of 2009 in South Africa, the
United States supported its decision as it is expected that the
conference would focus on the Israeli human rights violations.
Immediately after the announcement of the conference, Israel and world
Jewish organizations began to launch diplomatic and media campaign
against it, in a clear confusion between criticizing the Israeli practices
against the Palestinian people, and considering this criticism as an act
of anti-Semitism, which makes Israel free from the criticism though
committing brutal massacres.
5- Bread Crises in the Arab world
Mohamed Ezz El-Arab
The Arab States suffer a bread
crisis during recent months, which turned the problem from a commercial problem into a community crisis.
The severity of the crisis increases because the Arab states depend on
the imports to meet at least half of the basic food needs. The consumption
of wheat in the Arab region exceeds the consumption of any similar area
in terms of population. The Arab food crisis is accompanied with the
global food crisis, where the grain prices raised by 42% in 2007,
according to the global food index issued by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO).
6- Local People’s Councils Elections:
Indications and Results
Yosri Ezbawy
The Egyptian local
people's council elections were held in Egypt on April 8th,
2008, the election battle was settled for the National Democratic Party (NDP)
with a ratio of 70% of the seats by acclamation.
El-Wafd, El- Tagamoa, the Nasserist & El-Geel parties, participated
in the elections. The electoral scene has been characterized by several
features including: setting administrative obstacles in front of
independents & opposition candidates since the 1st moment,
canceling the judicial supervision, & obstructing the work of civil
society organizations observers.
April
2008
Issue
no. 160
French
Military Base in the Gulf Region
Dr. / Mohamed Abd El-Salam
The Gulf region continues to constitute
a security dilemma which seems to be unsolvable, this area had never been
left before in a security vacuum, as there have always been security
arrangements but at the same time, it had never witnessed stable security,
also, there has been an ongoing debate on the options for building
security in it, but still the issue of establishing a French military
base in the Gulf, raises major questions about the security equations in
that region.
Strategic
Partnership between Germany and Israel
Samia Bebars
The Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert visit to Germany on February 10th, 2008, represents a
milestone in the history of the special relationship between both Germany
and Israel. The most significant outcome of the visit was the announcement
of the establishment of a joint ministerial council of the two states governments
to develop bilateral relations in all areas, and this marked their
relationship as a strategic partnership. There is no doubt that what has
been agreed upon between the two sides may raise Arab doubts on the German
role in the Middle East.
Kosovo
& the Challenges of Independence
Mahmoud Hamdy Abu El- Kassem
The bitter conflict which
Kosovo had witnessed & in which thousands of Albanians were killed, continued
to inspire the struggle for independence that was officially achieved on
February 14th, 2008. Kosovo's Independence have won the support
& recognition of major international powers, but the challenge now is
that Kosovo should prove to be a sovereign democratic State, based on
diversity, united based on citizenship for all, adopt Europeanized values
and institutions, and that it has regional relations especially with
Serbia.
Venezuela:
between the Colombian & the American Crises
Marwa Salem
Venezuela had a crisis with the United States in conjunction with another
crisis erupted with Colombia. However, President Hugo Chavez's moderation
of the two crises varied, where he favored to contain the Colombian
crisis and he succeeded to achieve this in a short time making use of the
summit of Rio Group, while on the other side, and as usual, Venezuela
escalated its crisis with the United States, where mutual relations are
characterized by tension and hostility since Chavez came to the
presidency due to the ideological and political nature of policies
adopted by Venezuela which rejects American hegemony on the world.
Who cut Internet
Cables from the Middle East?
Adel Abd El-Sadek
On January 30th,
2008, the Gulf states, Egypt, India and other states in the Middle East had
witnessed a sudden hit in the Internet services, due to a cut in two offshore
Cables in the Mediterranean, followed by another cut in the Gulf, which
has threatened to isolate the region from the world and subject its economic
interests to risk, this revealed the extent to which the Middle East and
Egypt, have become linked to the international network in all areas of
life, and also, it raised many questions on the nature of the incident
and the reasons that led to the sudden simultaneous cut.
The Oil Specification
in U.S. policy towards the African Continent
Khaled Abd El-Hamid
Oil is a major determinant of
the U.S. foreign policy-making to the extent that it might lead the state
to war to secure access to it. The U.S. efforts are backed to the fall of
self-capacity of oil at a time of increasing rates of American daily
consumption. As Africa occupies an important position in the global oil
map, the United States have used a set of tools to secure and ensure the
flow of African oil without any obstacles or problems, especially in
light of the fierce international competition on oil and natural gas
resources in the black continent.
March
2008
Issue no. 159
How has President Idriss Deby regime been rescued from falling?
Hani Raslan
In early February 2008,
President Idriss Deby regime was close to collapse after being subjected to an attack led by coalition of three
major factions of the opposition. However, the French support- represented
in military aid and intelligence- has helped Deby to survive and pass
this crisis. In addition, despite the opposition alliance success in
achieving military victories that were about to be decisive, it was unable
to unify and coordinate the political visions and overcome the internal disputes
among the core leaders, due to disputes over leadership positions which will succeed Deby's regime.
Pakistani
Elections & the Importance of achieving Stability
Atef Sakr
On February 18th,
2008, Pakistani elections were held affected by global, regional and
local conditions, it has led to a sweeping victory for the opposition
forces, and a heavy defeat for the main supporting party for Pakistani
President Pervez Musharraf. The results showed a decline in popularity of
al Qaeda and its supporters in favor of the forces of moderation. The People's
Party, the largest winning party, will be assigned to form the central
government, but the problem of the next coalition government would be
linked to the identification of how to deal with President Musharraf, in
order to combat extremism and the eradication of poverty and illiteracy, in
order not to give a chance for the military to conduct a coup against the
new secular government.
The
Borders with Gaza & the Egyptian National Security
Sobhy Essaila
What happened on
January 23rd, 2008 on the Egyptian-Palestinian borders, was
not just a demolition of part of the border wall, but an attempt by Hamas
to mix cards and put Egypt in a real fix posing a direct threat to its
national security, in a bid to strengthen the internal position of Hamas,
and the problem is that the border breach serves an Israeli plan to
export the problem of Gaza to Egypt.
Narrow
Options for Iranian Reformers
Mohammed Abbas Nagy
Elections of the 8th
session of the Iranian Shura Council, which will be held in March 2008, have
a major importance for many considerations: first, it represents a strong
test of all political trends from reformers, traditional conservatives
and fundamentalist conservatives, secondly, it is considered a referendum
on the government of President Ahmadinejad, which is currently facing a
number of criticisms, and, finally, because it will be an important
indicator that could help in determining the winner of the 9th presidential elections,
which will be held in mid-2009.
Constitutional
Amendment & the freedom of Veil in Turkish Universities
Dr. / Ibrahim El-Bayoomy Ghanem
The Turkish parliament
adopted the amendments proposed by the ruling Justice and Development
Party to the 10th & 42nd articles of the
Constitution, under which female students will be able to wear
headscarves in Turkish universities, but the ban will continue in the
parliament and the courts. The parliament's decision won a majority of 80%
of its members. The victory of the ruling AK Party came as an important
step on the path of the application of its manifesto, and the
reformulation of secularism concept in Turkey, so as not to be hostile to
religion or democracy, at the same time, the issue of the veil will be a
subject of debate again when the ruling AKP propose its project to
rewrite the Constitution in full within 2009.
Democratic
Coalition: Does it differ from the previous Partisan Coalitions?
Dr. / Dina Shehata
Four Egyptian opposition
parties, El-Wafd, El-Tagamoa, the Nasserist & the Democratic Front,
have launched a new political coalition under the name "Democratic
Coalition". According to the founding document, the Democratic Coalition
differs from the previous partisan coalitions in a number of ways, the
most important of which is that it presents itself as a third alternative
to both the NDP and the Muslim Brotherhood, where its membership is limited
to those that adopt a democratic agenda and recognize the rights of
citizenship and civil state, but now, the question is: Will this
coalition overcome the difficulties faced by previous coalitions?
February
2008
Issue
no. 158
Kenyan Crisis: Political development and the absence of Democratic
Traditions.
Dr. / Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud
The Kenyan crisis reflects a
dilemma often faced by the emerging democracies in developing countries
in general, and African countries in particular, resulting from the
absence of democratic traditions and values, as a result of the recent
experience, and the continuity of many legacies of the former
authoritarian systems, and its overlapping with complex economic, social
and cultural realities. This impasse is linked to the fact that the
democratic transition in most cases is not the result of internal
economic & political development, but a reflection of external
pressures, making it difficult to stabilize the democratic changes in societies
plagued by violent internal divisions and sharp conflicts of interests among
different ethnicities.
Which
future for the Neo-conservatives in the United States?
Amr Abd
El-Atty
With the U.S. presidential
election approaching in November of this year, the current
administration's failures in many foreign policy files, raises a key
question on whether the U.S. failure would be the beginning of the decline
of the neo-conservative thought, and the end of its effect upon the
expiration of Bush's two administrations, or that, in spite of the challenges
it faces on the intellectual and practical levels, it will remain active
and influential on the next U.S. administrations?.
Awakening
Councils and Security in Iraq.
Ahmed
Diab
The awakening councils have
become an important cornerstone in the security equation in Iraq, after
it succeeded in lowering the level of
violence in the state, but they are still a debatable issue between Iraqi
political blocs, especially in light of the clear U.S. support directed
to it. Signs of disagreements in Baghdad on the future of these paramilitary forces, have appeared heavily between
two calls, the first calls for its joining to the security agencies of
the State, and the second is not satisfied as it considers that most of
these councils belong to the Sunni tribes.
Emirate
Women on the way of Empowerment
Khalid
Ali Abd El-Khaliq
There is no doubt that the status
of the Gulf woman in general- and woman in the community of the UAE in
particular - is undergoing significant developments since the sixties, in
a manner parallel to the transformations that have occurred in other social,
economic & cultural aspects of
the community, and it is important to track these changes and their
implications on the status of women, in order to reveal women's rights that
have been ignored by the community for a long time ago.
Darfur: a
Crisis of a Changing & Elusive Nature
Hani
Raslan
Since the outbreak of the
Darfur crisis in the 1st half of 2003, it moves from a complex
phase to another, so that it reached, after more than four years of
fighting and humanitarian disasters, the current phase in which the
vanguard of the international forces started to come to the territory as
of January 2008, without a peace agreement that these troops would
contribute in its application. This made the Darfur issue to seem to be
shifted to an intractable issue, especially after the failure of the
first round of the Sirte conference in Libya.
Oil
prices..Heading to Where?
Rania
Makram
The attempt to identify the
level that the oil prices may reach, is much more complicated than it
seems, because of the sensitivity of oil prices to other changes that occur
in many areas that may not be directly related. The oil prices started to
rise to the 3-field number since the mid 2007. And despite the fact that
the oil prices exceeding 100$ on the first trading day of this year, is
considered the third shock to the world oil market, but that the shock is
the most important and most controversial, particularly with regard to its
causes and its possible implications on the oil market in general.
January
2008
Issue no. 157
Lebanon and the presidential vacuum
Ibrahim
Ghali
The failure of the Lebanese
people, particularly the political class, to choose a successor to
President Emile Lahoud, who ended his second special session on November
24th, 2007, was not except an expression that in each
transition from a president to another or from one government to another,
or from a representative council to another, the internal accounts of
opponents represented in the parliamentary majority (March 14 forces) and
the opposition (March 8 forces and the Free Patriotic Movement), must
intersect with interests abroad, which highly affects all political aspects
in Lebanon.
Annapolis conference ... which
negotiations it launched?!
Mohamed
Gomaa
The new Palestinian – Israeli
negotiations on final status issues (after a break of seven years, since
January 2001) after the Annapolis meeting, which took place on November
27th, 2007, raised many questions and speculations about the
facts of the negotiations, the Israeli negotiating behavior expected
after Annapolis, and whether there is a change that could allow the
belief that the settlement process would fulfill the Palestinian and Arab
demands, and also whether there is a Palestinian negotiating strategy,
especially in light of the state of division and weakness that
characterizes the internal Palestinian arena.
Israeli
Military & Security presence in the Horn of Africa
Samar Ibrahim
There is a number of mechanisms
that Israel adopt in its foreign policy towards the African continent in
general, notably the military, economic, social, information and
educational means. As for the Horn of Africa in particular, Israel is
seeking to achieve its objectives in the military and security areas through
a variety of ways: most notably are the military and security assistance,
in addition to the military presence in the African states. The Israeli
activities in the African continent, is only an expression of its
interests to break the Arab siege around it through expanding its
international relations.
Legislative
elections in Denmark
Hisham
El-Sadek
The Danish Constitution
stipulates the right of the Prime Minister to advance the election date, and
this is what the Danish Prime Minister has done when he advanced the
election date, after the rejection of a number of parties to vote on the
financial budget for the next ten years, as well as their refusal of
qualitative reform, and some other issues presented by the head of
Government and that has not been approved, and therefore the PM had no
option other than to call for early legislative elections in which Islam
and Muslim issues have played an important role in determining some
of its tracks.
The
position of the Muslim Brotherhood bloggers & the division between
Fatah and Hamas
Rabha
Seif El-Din Allam
Muslim Brotherhood bloggers split
into two teams regarding the ongoing dispute between Hamas and Fatah. The
two teams addressed the decisive option made by Hamas in Gaza, and
assessed it legally and politically, and also discussed its
implementation and the mistakes made by the Hamas movement during the
crisis, or earlier, which had a direct effect on its position during the
crisis. This controversy ended up by trading-off between the possible
solutions to overcome the current impasse through a substantive dialogue,
which has enriched the positions of both teams.
Reading in the Press Syndicate Elections
Mahmoud
Ramadan El-Mamlouk
The Press Syndicate is used to
witnessing various & bilateral groupings, based on several
considerations, including: the political affiliation of the government or
the opposition, or the professional or service basis of the syndicate.
This division is mostly due to the incident that the last election, have
been conducted against the backdrop of a high political polarization. In
addition to the growing debate between supporters and opponents on which
to have priority the service or the political role. This is, of course,
in addition to the continued penalty of imprisonment in a number of
actions related to dissemination issues.
