Volume 15
July Issue
Legal bases for the
Egyptian stance from the legal framework of the Nile River
Dr. / Mohamed Shawky Abd El-Aal
During the extraordinary
meeting of the Ministers of water in the Nile
basin countries in the Congolese capital (Kinshasa), the Egyptian stance of
refusing to sign the draft Convention without containing an explicit
provision on the historical rights of Egypt in the Nile waters can be considered a very sound one in
legal terms. The reason is that the draft convention did not yet exceed
the negotiation phase, and consequently it has not imposed any legal
bindings, and thus any of the negotiating parties is entitled to reconsider
any of the issues raised at the negotiating table.
Georgia and the implications of the Rose
Revolution
Alaa Salem
Georgia is suffering both from the repercussions of
the fall of its Rose Revolution, and its rise to power as well. 14
political parties entered in a broad coalition aiming at toppling
President Mikhail Saakashvili, through relying on street legitimacy
which he has used before against his predecessor Edouard Shevardnadze.
In this context, the last castle of color revolution, which was
supported and funded by the United States within the
Soviet zone, became on the verge of crumbling.
The
call for Abdullah Gul trial: Is it a battle against the president? Or
to block Turkey's
role?
Dr. Ibrahim El-Bayoumi Ghanem
"Sngan" court has issued
a resolution on the possibility of submitting the Turkish President
Abdullah Gul to the trial. This renewed instability to the Turkish
political life, because, this is a made issue, therefore it would be
doomed to failure. But until it reaches the end, it will raise
controversy around President Abdullah Gul and the ruling Justice and
Development Party & its government.
Lebanese
Elections between Sectarian Strife and External Intervention
Mahmoud Hamdi Abu El-Kasem
The outcome of the Lebanese
elections, which took place on June 7th 2009, reflected the sectarian
situation in Lebanon.
It also came within the realm of a complicated regional &
international situation, and at a historic moment in which Lebanon
was polarized between two opposing trends. According to interests and
alliances, each team summoned its internal strength and sought support
from its external allies in addition to using all the instruments of
polarization as ethnic and sectarian appeals, unprecedented financial
expenditure, promises, temptations and external threats.
Contents
& Objectives of the French Military Presence in the UAE
Khaled Ali Abd El-Khalek
France's opening of a
military base in the UAE renewed the
possibilities of France return once again to the east militarily through
this base which is considered the first from nearly fifty years since
stopping the construction of military bases outside the French
territory. That visit also witnessed the signature of a number of
economic conventions with Emirates. Since he became the president of France,
Sarkozy works on France's
direct interaction in the Gulf region and the Middle
East after being confined to the Mediterranean
and the Francophonie group.
Israeli
Raids on Sudan: Incidents & Analysis
General / Hossam Sweilem
After a silence of two
months, Egyptian, Sudanese, American & Israeli media revealed in
early April 2009 that three Israeli raids took place against convoys
carrying weapons in Sudan, bound for the Hamas movement in Gaza, these
raids aimed at preventing the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hamas in
order not to re – build its missile arsenal after the war on Gaza. This
is not the first time for Israel to act outside its
borders to deliver several messages at the same time for Iran
and Hamas, Sudan and the Arab world.
June
Issue
1- Iran
& Turkey:
a Hidden Conflict on the Regional Role
Mohamed
Abbas Nagy
This is the most
suitable time for Iran
to carefully realize the implications of an active regional role played
by Turkey
& its impact on the Iranian strategic interests. The Iranian
concerns stem from realizing that there are profound differences
between the two parties fueled by historical, ideological and political
considerations, and this might be invested by Iran's opponents, particularly
the United States and Israel, to push Turkey to play a "regional
stabilizing role" in the Middle East, that may reduce the Iranian
influence on the regional scene and present a developed Islamic model
competing the Iranian model.
2- The Egyptian Role in Gulf Security
Yosry Ezbawy
The importance of
Gulf region security to Egypt
can not be ignored. The introduction of this file is backed to several
considerations, first, the economic & strategic importance of the
Gulf region, second, the fact that the region has enjoyed neither
security nor stability since the late seventies, third, the increased
foreign military presence, especially the American one in the Gulf
region, and also, in recent years the Gulf region has witnessed three
major regional and international developments; the direct consequences
of war on terrorism, the US-led invasion of Iraq and the escalation of
the Iranian nuclear program crisis. These developments have posed challenges
to its internal and regional stability.
3- The
Egyptian Movement towards Sudan: What follows the
International Criminal Court's Verdict?
Akram
Hossam
The International Criminal
Court (ICC) verdict on March 4th, 2009, represented a turning point in
the course of the Sudanese file in general and the Darfur crisis in
particular. Hence, the importance of the current Egyptian Movement
stems from special considerations that can be summarized in one
sentence, namely "that the security and stability of Sudan
is part of the Egyptian national security" which distinguishes the
Egyptian attitude towards Sudan than towards any
other regional and international developments.
4 - The Future of Justice and
Development Party after the municipal elections
Mohamed Abd El-Kader
The municipal elections held
in Turkey
on March 29th,
2009, have pushed the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan to conduct a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle, in order to
overcome the passive policies of its ruling party, which led it to
obtain only 40% of the votes. The last ministerial change reengineered
the Turkish government in order to achieve greater effectiveness in
formulating the Party's economic and social policies; particularly
since many of the voting patterns of the Turkish people were
"protest voting" on the performance of the Turkish government
and its failure to deliver the party's message to the Turkish citizen.
5 - Israel between two
strategic plans (2012 - 2018)
Dr. /
Tarek Fahmy
The Israeli Government
announcement of its two plans, Israel 2012 & Israel 2018, has risen
many questions and dilemmas concerning the State planning for the
future, not only in areas of the economy or management, but also in all
areas of the State, especially as it paints scenarios and visions for
many years, with position estimates of the political decision-maker.
However, there is a difference in the content of the two plans, where
the first "2018" focuses on decision-making and assessment of
future & strategic political, economic and social vision, while the
second "2012" focuses mainly on future military visions
6 - India
& the Democratic Process Challenges
Beshir
Abd El-Fattah
India is considered the largest democracy in the
world because it reflects a real and living model of the practical
application of the principles of liberal democracy, amid the largest
pluralistic human gathering on earth. In the midst of those
contradictions of social, political, ethnic and cultural diversity, the
Indian democratic experience is not without flaws, where India
is the largest center for the poor in the world, and it suffers a high
illiteracy rate & malnutrition, the spread of epidemics and
diseases, and the proliferation of white slavery trade and corruption.
May Issue
Doha Summit…What has been achieved?
Mahmoud Hamdy Abu El-Kasem
The 21st Doha summit,
coinciding with a state of Arab political mobilization, aimed at ending
the state of division that afflict the Arab states now. Also, the
summit coincided with the rise of the Israeli right to the fore, in
addition to the decision of arresting the Sudanese President Omar
al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court, and finally with the
growing Arab fears from Iranian domination on Iraq. All these factors
together attached hopes to the decisions that would emanate from the
summit and would have a significant impact on the Arab arena.
How
will the new U.S.
administration deal with Iran?
Iman Ahmed Ragab
During his first visit to Europe and Turkey, U.S. President
Barack Obama, delivered a number of messages to Iran to
prove his adherence to enter into direct dialogue with it on its
nuclear activities. However, this does not preclude the possibility of
resorting to military force if dialogue fails. This confirms that
Obama's messages do not mean a deviation from the policies of the
previous administration or total exclusion of the military option, but
it rather means the re-arrangement of available options to the new
administration to deal with Iran so as not to be judged by its allies
& partners as if it resorted to military option arbitrarily and in
an illegitimate way, and thus the possibility of resorting to military
force is still in place.
NATO:
Meeting Challenges & Catching Updates
Dr. / Osama Mkhemar
The last summit of the NATO
coincided with celebration of the 60s anniversary of its establishment.
These celebrations accompanied many protest movements, which call for
the dissolution of this expansionist military alliance. In the midst of
this atmosphere, the members of NATO were concerned with studying the
challenges and developments with which the alliance should deal quickly
and effectively; the most important of these challenges is the Afghani
issue as well as the relations with Russia, while the most important
development is represented in expanding membership in addition to
selecting a new Secretary-General of NATO
Bouteflika
and the Challenges of the Third Mandate
Hamed Mahmoud
Despite the overwhelming victory of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in
the presidential election held in April 2009, winning a third term
getting more than 90 % of the votes. However, this win was not a
surprise as all observers expect these results in advance, and this win
was only an extension to the Algerian President for five years to come,
began in April 19,
2009 and will end in the same month of the year 2014. This
poses many questions, among which is the future of the political
landscape in the state, as well as the future of national
reconciliation which Bouteflika had advanced.
Netanyahu:
Facing the Settlement Process Once Again!
Sobhy Essaila
Following the reelection of
Benjamin Netanyahu as the prime minister of Israel, many questions were
raised about his attitude towards the peaceful settlement of the
Arab-Israeli conflict, in particular in its Palestinian dimension, in
addition to many fears, given that the previous experience of Netanyahu
in power is more pessimistic than optimistic. In spite of the
legitimacy of those questions and fears, but in fact they neglect many
considerations which will impact Netanyahu and his government stance
towards settlement compared to his previous term.
The
Agreement of Applying Sharia in the Pakistani Swat Territory
Ali Mahgoub
After a period of hesitation, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has signed
a controversial law in April 13, 2009, which allows the application of
Islamic law in the Swat valley north-east of Pakistan. A move which
came just hours after Pakistan's
parliament has issued a resolution urging Zardari to ratify the law to
meet the requirements of the peace agreement which was reached with the
Taliban (Pakistan)
in mid-February 2009, and this triggered mixed reactions locally,
regionally and internationally.
April Issue
Hillary Clinton
and the Reformulation of American-Chinese Relations
Beshir Abdel Fattah
During her visit to Beijing in February 21, 2009, the American
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, was keen on adopting a new
technique in managing relations with China. Clinton called for
strengthening the relations between the two powers in order to face the
challenges posed by the global financial crisis, ignoring criticism
that have been previously directed to Beijing on issues of human rights
and democracy. This new orientation by Obama's administration indicates
Washington response to the experts advices of not to antagonize China
and work on taming and recruiting its growing regional and
international ambitions in a way that serves the American strategic
projects in general, and specifically the Asian ones.
Khatami's Withdrawal from the Elections: Dimensions and Implications
Naji Mohammed Abbas
The former Iranian President Mohamed Khatami, announced his withdrawal
from the nomination in the tenth presidential elections, which will be
held on June 12, 2009, an election whose results will have great implications
not only at the internal level, but also at the external one,
especially under the severe congestion that characterizes Iran's
regional and international relations because of the radical policies
pursued by Mahmoud Ahmedi-Nijad.
The Chinese Attitude
towards the Darfur Crisis in the Security Council
Sami Sabri Abdel Kawi
Concerning the Darfur crisis, China tried to play a balanced role to
preserve its broad interests in Sudan, particularly the economic ones,
and its strategic interests with the Western powers, particularly the
United States. Thus, in the coming period there are growing forecasts
regarding the way through which China will interact with the crisis
caused by the decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC), and
whether Beijing will support the Arab and African efforts, and urge the
other permanent states of the Security Council to adopt more flexible
positions for suspending the arrest decision. It is known that Khartoum
pins its hopes on the Chinese position, and bets on its effectiveness
in addressing any possible decision issued by the Council to implement
the arrest warrant.
The Dimensions of the Clash between the Sudanese Government and the
Foreign Organizations
Khaled Hanafi Ali
The relationship between the Sudanese government and foreign
organizations operating in Sudan, is usually characterized by
persistent tensions and varies from charges of spying for Western
intelligence agencies to financing rebel movements; where the Sudanese
government considers such organizations as no more than non-official
actors carrying out the policies of the major powers to influence the
course of conflict in the state. In order to overcome these concerns,
efforts have to be taken to ensure the independence and
non-politicization of these organizations performance through the
diversification of funds sources and the creation of measures that
control the politicization of aid distribution in the different
conflict zones.
Kuwait's Economic
Summit: Between Economic Worries and Political Conflict
Mohamed Hafiz Abdel Majid
The first Arab economic summit in Kuwait was held in January 19, 2009,
this came under the tense conditions of the economic crisis, coinciding
with the challenges facing the Arab world of poverty, food & water
crises and problems of unemployment. The summit coincided with the
outbreak of the global economic and financial crisis, which has serious
repercussions on Arab economies. It also coincided with the state of
Arab division in the wake of the aggression against Gaza Strip. The
success of the Arab economic summit depends on the commitment of Arab
States to implement the decisions emanating from it.
The Gas
Organization ... Russian Ambitions and Western Fears
Ahmed Diab
At the end of 2008, a charter of a new organization of gas exporting
countries, like "OPEC", was signed during the seventh meeting
of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) in Moscow, so that one of
its most important objectives would be the coordination among
gas-exporting countries, studying projects to develop gas production
and the establishment of joint projects. This bloc has raised fears of
the Western countries, which considered that the formation of an
organization that brings together Russia, Iran and Qatar , is motivated
by political rather than economic factors, since the three countries
control over more than 60% of world reserves of gas discovered in the
territory, and this would pose threats to the global energy security.
March Issue
Israeli Elections 2009: Public Opinion, Heading to Where?!
Sobhy Essaila
The outcome of the 2009 Israeli elections has surprised many of the
observers, and perhaps it surprised the Israelis themselves, this
confused the Israeli partisan map, as the Israeli public opinion moved
more towards right. These elections may be the sole Israeli elections,
after which the situation will be complicated more than that was
before. It is certain that the war on Gaza was a key factor in
strengthening this confusion, particularly with regard to public
opinion, which was somehow impressed by the aggressiveness of Kadima
government towards Gaza, however, this does not size its orientation
towards right.
Partisan Balance
of Power in Israeli Elections
Mohamed Abdel Kader
As the Israeli electoral conflict was running close, another conflict
broke out concerning the party who is entitled to form a new Israeli
government, and the nature of coalition which will share in the
government. The results have raised heated debates at the Israeli
political level, as well as at regional and international levels due to
re-arranging the internal balance of power on both the political &
partisan scenes in the Jewish state in a way that was described by some
trends as "a new political coup".
Hezbollah and Iran: Between Political Dependency and Religious
Affiliation
Hamed Mahmoud
The Attitude of the Lebanese Hezbollah during the crisis of the last
Israeli aggression on Gaza, and the statements of its Secretary General
Hassan Nasrallah, in which he criticized Egypt's stance fiercely, to
the extent of inciting the Egyptian army to coup against the political
system in Egypt, have raised many questions regarding the nature of
Hezbollah and its political position in the Lebanese political system,
and how it relates to Iran- which holds a hostile attitude towards
Egypt and tries to undermine the Egyptian regional role, this stance
raised also some questions regarding the role played by Hezbollah in
the context of the Iranian strategy.
Syria and Gaza's Post War Period
Mahmoud Hamdi Abul Kashem
The Syrian strategy which seeks to activate the Syrian regional role in
order to be placed as an important figure internationally and
regionally, put the Syrian regime in a hot stuff facing a number of
problems and hard options. And this is something that must be confirmed
by addressing the problems imposed on the Syrian regime in the wake of
the Israeli aggression on Gaza in December 27, 2008.
Wagers of War and Peace in Somalia
Dr. Hamdy Abdel Rahman
The strategic vision regarding the Somali issue asserts that it goes
beyond the domestic complexities to be put in the context of regional
and international arrangements that reflect the interests of external
parties that do not necessarily coincide with the Somali public
interest. The international dealing with the issue of piracy in the
Gulf of Aden and the attempt to isolate it from its real causes,
confirms that it was taken as a pretext to justify foreign military
presence on the shores of the Horn of Africa, which emphasizes the
internationalization of the Somali issue by considering it a non-Arab
affair. Moreover, the security of the Red Sea has become a foreign
affair, and this poses a threat to the security of the Arab states
overlooking it.
Sana'a Gathering
and the Search for a regional role
Sami Sabri Abdel-Kawi
The convening of the Sixth Summit of the Sana'a Forum for Cooperation -
which includes Yemen, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia - in the Sudanese
capital Khartoum in December 30, 2008, came within the realm of a
number of developments in the Horn of Africa and south of the Red Sea;
the top of which are the piracy, the latest developments in Somalia
& Sudan, these issues developed a real test to Sana'a Gathering,
and raised questions concerning its effectiveness in addressing the
problems of the region, which represents a great strategic importance
for the major states.
February Issue
Hamas's Options after Gaza attack
Mohamed Abul Fadl
In the wake of the Israeli aggression on Gaza, the Palestinian scene
seems more complicated than it was before. Economically, most of the
infrastructure and thousands of homes have been destructed in Gaza
Strip. And politically, broad sectors of citizens have become worried
of Hamas's actions, and many external forces attempted to incite the
Palestinian people in Gaza to coup against the movement. And concerning
security, many have become fear from the escalation of Israeli military
actions and from Hamas's inability to handle the issue and enter into
factional clashes.
Gaza crisis: Will Turkey Regain its Regional Role?
Karam Said
As revealed by Gaza events, some Arab governments and regimes have lost
the capacity for creativity and innovation in making their foreign
policy. In addition, the crisis has provided an ample opportunity for
Turkey to play a greater regional role and to fill the gap, especially
in the lights of clear divisions among Arabs, as well as the growing
image of the Turkish State in the mentality of the peoples of the
region after Turkey's initiative in holding Israel responsible for the
outcome of the situation in Gaza.
War on Gaza: the Crisis of Israeli-Latin Relations
Alaa Salem
The most violent official reaction to the Israel war against Hamas in
the Gaza Strip, came from outside the Arab system, which is supposed to
be a breeding environment for the Palestinian side, and from a regional
system which is far geopolitically, related only through humanitarian
ties. The Venezuelan and Bolivian presidents cut their country's
relations with Israel after indicating the size of the Holocaust
carried by Israel against the Palestinians. This is an unprecedented
action in Israel's relations with the Latin countries.
Aggression on Gaza and the Electronic Resistance: Between dialogue and
destruction
Adel Abdel-Sadek
With the widespread use of cyberspace and its access to all areas of
life, it began to be used also in the military field, as a new field
for war and fighting. Thus, a new form of war has emerged which is
different in nature, parties, objectives, environment and battlefield
from a conventional warfare under a new environment & mediator used
by all actors, so that the Internet or cyberspace have become new
platform for the conflict in all its forms and multi-image, the Israeli
aggression on Gaza, 27 December 2008 until the cease-fire in January 2009
has revealed another chapter of this new type of conflict.
Iraqi Provincial Elections and the Future of Basra territory
Hamed Mahmoud
The Iraqi provincial elections is the second elections to be held after
the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and the occupation of Iraq, the
first elections have witnessed withdrawals and the absence of many
Iraqi parties, particularly the Sunni parties, that’s why the recent
elections are considered of great importance in the formation of a new
map for the Iraqi political system, especially in light of the collapse
of the political alliances that had existed since the 2005 elections
and constituted a foundation of governance, in addition to the
escalation of the conflict among Shiite groups in this election, and
its desire to control the oil-rich south of Iraq, this is considered as
a struggle between advocates of federal thought & separatist
thought.
Debates on the Abolition of the Sponsorship System in the Gulf Region
Mohamed Ezz Al-Arab
the call for the abolition of the sponsorship system escalated during
the year 2008, this system had been applied in the Gulf Cooperation
Council countries, over many years, to the extent that it turned into a
complex file on the agendas of these countries, due to its association
with the demographic structure, the labor situation, developmental
plans and the international image of the whole Gulf region, and there
become heated debates about the extent of this system success,
reconsidering or even abolition, and there are indicators for the shift
of the Gulf position regarding the sponsorship system, where some of
the States are considering alternatives to this system.
January 2009
The dimensions of the protests in Greece
Mahmoud Hamdy Abul Kasem
The killing of the Greek student Alexandros Greggorobols 15 years in
December 6, 2008 sparked a popular uprising and large protests in
Greece, where students occupied hundreds of schools. The opposition
could exploit these events widely where it exceeded its previous
demands concerning the resignation of the government reaching to bring
about radical reforms in the Police Service of Greece, and develop
legislation that would put an end to its men's repeated attacks on
citizens, especially that the absence of a mechanism of accountability and
control over the actions of the police has encouraged many of them to
repeat their attacks against citizens, which created widespread anger
in the streets of Greece.
Managing the
State's Assets: Possibilities of Success and Failure
Karam Said
During the last National Democratic Party Conference, the Government
announced a bill whereby a proportion of the shares of public sector
companies would be distributed free of charge to citizens aged 21 years
or more to improve the management of public assets. This governmental
decision has raised an increasing amount of controversy between
proponents and opponents of the decision and its implications, and has
also opened the door in front of many questions, most importantly how
these shares will be distributed to nearly 41 million citizens, and
whether there are strict conditions set out by the project so as not to
end the trial the same as the previous international experiences in
Russia and the Czech Republic have ended?
Mumbai Attacks:
Dimensions of the Political Recruitment against Pakistan
Alaa Salem
Mumbai bombings – with 180 victims – influenced the path to
rapprochement with Pakistan, and these explosions have raised many
dilemmas on the extent of the Indian retaliatory response, in addition
to the emergence of a new type of fundamentalist threats away from
control of al Qaeda, and the creation of tension in the Indo-Israeli
relations, in addition to its repercussions on the Indian domestic
politics, both on the idea of peaceful coexistence between ethnic
groups within the Indian community, or the possibility of recruiting
the event itself politically by the right-wing opposition of the
Government of the Congress party, especially that there is a coming
election in mid-2009.
Amendments of the Russian Constitution & the Possibilities of
Putin's Return
Ahmed Diab
In November 21, 2008, the Russian Duma has approved a constitutional
amendment extending the term of office of President from four to six
years, and the duration of the members of the Duma from four to five
years. The amendment was supported by the parliamentary majority
enjoyed by the United Russia party led by Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin, while opposed by a small minority, especially the Communist
Party members, led by Gennady Seganov. This amendment has raised a lot
of criticism and speculation, especially on the prospects for the
return of former President Vladimir Putin, the current prime minister,
to assume the presidency again and run in elections in 2012.
Limits of the
U.S. Foreign Policy Shift towards Iran after Electing Obama
Mohamed Abbas Naji
A state of optimism dominated the discussions and deliberations of the
political and decision-making circles in Iran after the victory of
Democratic candidate Barack Obama. However, this situation quickly
faded in waiting to see what the new U.S. Administration is going to
do. The U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, who called for an
unconditional dialogue with Iran, stressed at the same time many
important issues as continuing the policy of preventing Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons, and that he would work to build an
international coalition similar to the alliance created by the United
States to extricate Iraq from Kuwait in 1991, in order to address
Iran's nuclear and regional ambitions, and the imposition of more
stringent and effective international sanctions on it
