For the first time in the history of the Hebrew State, Israeli President Shimon Peres asked Benyamin Netanyahu-whose Likud party came second in the legislative elections held on 10 February 2009- to form the government. Indeed, it was quite clear from the very beginning that Tzipi Livni-whose Kadima party won 28 seats against 27 for the Likud-would not be able to form the government given the resounding victory achieved by right-wing parties, which clinched 65 out of 120 Knesset seats. As for the Israeli legislation, it does not stipulate that the party that wins the largest number of seats should form the government. The Israeli President faced a real dilemma dubbed by the Israeli daily Ha'artz the "designation complex". For he failed to convince Livni and Netanyahu to a formula of power rotation, through which each heads the government for two years, similar to the agreement reached in 1984, between the Likud led by Yitzhak Shamir and Labour Party led by Shimon Peres.
Among the oddities characterising the latest Israeli elections is that two parties announced their victory in the immediate aftermath of the vote. Livni depended on the fact that its party won the largest number of seats, amid a notably high voter turn-out -more than 67%. According to earlier projections, turn-out was expected to be as low as 63.2%. Indeed, over the first three decades following the foundation of the Jewish State, turn-out used to be 82-87%. Afterwards, it decreased to 63-67% until 2003 elections- when it was as high as 69%. Hence turn-out in the latest elections could be considered as relatively high. As for Netanyahu, he announced his triumph on the grounds that the Israeli right made a sweeping victory.
Lurch to the right
As a matter of fact, the latest elections reveal that the Israeli public is strongly drifting towards the right. This is actually a decade-long phenomenon. The fact that Kadima won the largest number of seats does not negate that the right is gaining ascendance. It is apparent that the Israeli public is determined not to forgive failed politicians. Therefore Barak's hopes that his war on Gaza would help boost his position in the elections were dashed. For the Israeli public believes that Barak had failed as a prime minister. It has to be borne in mind that the shift to the right has been growing since the eruption of the second intifada in 2000. This has much to do with the rise of violence between the Palestinians the Israelis along with the deteriorating state of peace process. Such tendency was further manifested by the ascension of Ariel Sharon to the premiership in 2001, and his re-election in 2003.
Possible scenarios
Peres's choosing of Netanyahu to form the government is yet to resolve the crisis. As for the latter, he has three possible options. The first and most probable is a totally right-wing coalition government including Likud, the extreme right Yisrael Beiteinu (15 seats), the United Torah Judaism (5 seats), and Shas (11 seats). Such a coalition would have 65 Knesset seats. If this scenario is to materialise, the new government will be capable of controlling the decision-making process. The US-Israeli relations, however, would undergo a setback as the Obama administration is not expected to welcome such an ultra right coalition.
The second option is a government including the three big parties: Likud, Kadima and Labour. It will have 70 seats and enjoy better chances to hold. However, the risk is that each of the three parties could bring the government to collapse any moment due to this or that reason. Thirdly, a mid-way solution could be reached through which Kadima is substituted by extreme right parties -with the only exception of Shas. This government-with 82 seats- would therefore be closer to the right, though it will not be totally right-wing. Moreover, it will enable Netanyahu to launch a public relation campaign to win the heart and mind of Washington. But the obstacle on the way of this scenario is the pervious agreement between Likud and Shas to join forces against Kadima.
Is seems that the first scenario is the more likely. Then Kadima, the party that clinched the largest number of seats- would find itself in a difficult position. It will have to choose between two bitter options: either to stand in the shadow-which could lead to further splits- or integrate into the Likud, the mother party, i.e. to sacrifice its very existence. It seems that Livni would prefer the first alternative and wait for the coming elections, particularly when it is likely that a coalition government without Kadima is not expected to hold for more than 18 months.
As for Labour Party, it has already decided to sit on the opposition benches. Apparently, it received the message the Israeli public sought to convey and accepted the challenge of reform. Otherwise next election will consign the party to the graveyard of history.